The United States of America and Iran have agreed to a conditional, two-week ceasefire after more than a month of intense fighting that rapidly expanded to almost all of the Middle East, choked the world’s supplies of energy, fertilisers and more, and battered the global economy. Mediated by Pakistan, the ceasefire offers a welcome — albeit brief — reprieve that the principal protagonists of the war must use to try to hammer out a larger peace deal. That will not be easy. Unsurprisingly, both Washington and Tehran have portrayed the ceasefire as a victory. Their reliance on jingoistic, militaristic and all-or-nothing rhetoric over the course of the war also means that accepting compromise publicly will be difficult for them. Their formal demands from peace talks also remain poles apart. Iran insists that it be allowed to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz and extract fees for transit to recoup losses from the war. Tehran has also demanded that it be permitted to continue to enrich uranium, that all sanctions against it be lifted, and that the US withdraw from bases in the Gulf. The US, on its part, insists that Iran must give up uranium enrichment, stop supporting proxy groups like Hezbollah, impose limits on its ballistic missiles programme, and fully open up the Strait of Hormuz.
Against this backdrop, it is easy to be cynical about the prospects of peace emerging from talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad on Friday. Hours after the ceasefire was announced, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain announced that they had been attacked. An Iranian oil facility was bombed too. And Israel launched its biggest bombing of Lebanon since the beginning of the war: Jerusalem insists Lebanon is not covered by the ceasefire. Still, the very fact that the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire shows that for all their public bluster, both recognise that they need an off-ramp. The US president, Donald Trump, knows that the war is deeply unpopular at home. Iran’s infrastructure and people are bleeding. The rest of the world, including India, must use its diplomatic clout to urge the US and Iran to build on this moment and seek a lasting end to the conflict. Mr Trump might have meant Iran when he threatened to obliterate a civilisation in a recent rant. But if this war resumes, all of the world will be at risk in different ways.