More than three months after the United States of America and Israel launched unprovoked attacks on Iran, thrusting a devastating war upon that country and the region and economic strife upon the world, Washington and Tehran have agreed to an interim peace deal. Most details of the agreement are yet to be formally announced by either the US or Iran or by Pakistan, the principal mediator that brokered the talks. But the very fact that negotiators from the two nations are poised to sign the pact in Switzerland on Friday is a positive development that will bring relief to people, governments and markets around the world. The announcement of the deal comes more than two months after the declaration of a ceasefire that ended the worst phase of fighting but exposed the fragility of any peace in a region where the US, Iran and Israel are keen on imposing their respective wills but are pursuing divergent interests. Those differences, especially the ones between the US and Iran, were the driving reasons for the war. These differences remain unresolved.
At the centre of the agreement is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has agreed to lift its restrictions on passage through the waterway, and the US has said it will lift the naval blockade it had imposed on Iranian vessels. But Tehran has indicated that transit through the Strait needs to be coordinated with its authorities. It is unclear whether the US and other countries will accept that. Other facets of the peace deal also remain uncertain. Iran has insisted that peace in Lebanon must be a part of the pact. The US president, Donald Trump, has criticised Israel for its attacks on Lebanon during the negotiations but Israeli officials suggest that they do not see themselves bound by a US-Iran deal on Lebanon. That leaves any deal at the mercy of Hezbollah and Israel: neither actor has shown great desire to restrain itself. Differences also linger over the future of Iran’s enriched uranium and its nuclear programme. And even once the Strait of Hormuz opens, the presence of sea mines will mean increased risks, higher insurance, and greater costs for global consumers for the foreseeable future. For India, which depends on the waterway for a bulk of its energy and fertilisers, the pledge to open the Strait warrants cautious optimism. But the gift is wrapped in thorns.