The implosion of regional political outfits — outwitted by the machinations of an ambitious Bharatiya Janata Party — has led to spirited debates. The recent round of collapses has afflicted the Aam Aadmi Party, the Trinamool Congress and, now, what remained of the Shiv Sena (UBT). These deliberations have, more often than not, speculated on the likely political math in Parliament and the electoral implications as a result of these splits. The BJP, stung by its earlier failure to get the bill on delimitation passed in the face of a united Opposition, has engineered these lapses with a two-fold objective. First, numerical majority in Parliament would enable the BJP to pass bills deemed contentious by its opponents. Second, a fragmented Opposition would not be in a position to mount a challenge to the BJP’s bid to return to power in the next national election. Here, the BJP would have the Congress in its sight. Weakened regional parties could significantly undermine the Congress’s ability to forge electorally potent alliances.
These motives are undoubtedly consistent with the BJP’s hegemonic impulses. But is the Congress unhappy with these tectonic shifts? After all, many of these regional parties had deepened their electoral imprints over the decades at the Congress’s expense. Their altered fates can strengthen the Congress’s case of functioning as a magnetic nucleus for remnant Opposition blocs. Negotiating alliances with impaired regional satraps could be to the Congress’s advantage too — provided it does not repeat its hasty howlers with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. But one question cannot be avoided. Does the retreat of regional outfits signify a blow to India’s federal arrangement and democratic aspirations? After all, their many faults notwithstanding, regional parties have been an essential check on the dominance of both the BJP and the Congress.