Make or break
The Union home minister, Amit Shah, has, once again, staked his personal credibility on the results of the Bengal assembly elections. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s chief strategist is said to be confident of a win this time. Shah had led the party’s high-decibel campaign in 2021 too. He had set a ‘200 paar’ target. The claim fell flat. The BJP won just 77 of 294 seats. This time, party insiders say he is pushing an all-out strategy. The approach is seen as uncompromising. Shah is learnt to have told state leaders that victory is non-negotiable. Within the party, concerns persist. Another defeat could dent his standing as the second-most powerful leader in the ruling setup. Shah is known to project himself as the BJP’s key election strategist. The outcome in Bengal could have wider implications. Assembly polls in the country’s politically most significant state, Uttar Pradesh, are due early next year. A setback in Bengal may weaken his claim to lead that campaign. This could benefit the UP chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, who wants to retain firm control over the state. A victory, however, would strengthen Shah’s hand. It could complicate Adityanath’s ambition to emerge as Modi’s successor.
An exit foretold
The former Aam Aadmi Party member of the Rajya Sabha, Raghav Chadha, defected with six other AAP members of Parliament to the BJP on Friday. A week earlier, congratulating Harivansh Narayan Singh on his re-election as Rajya Sabha deputy chairman, he had said in the house, “The leader of the party I belong to is not present in the house. Also, the newly-appointed deputy leader of the party I belong to is absent from the house. I am the recently removed deputy leader of the party; I am present in the house.” The AAP’s then key strategist and MP, Sandeep Pathak, was present in the house and chuckled at Chadha’s speech. Pathak, a former IIT Delhi teacher from a BJP-leaning agrarian family in Chhattisgarh, also defected with Chadha.
Steady erosion
The defection of most of AAP’s parliamentary party to the BJP had dealt a blow to the party’s USP — that AAP’s legislators don’t defect — against the Congress in Goa and Gujarat. AAP leaders were elected from both states in 2022 and had projected themselves as a more effective alternative to the Congress. Of the five AAP MLAs in Gujarat, one defected to the BJP but AAP retained the seat in a bypoll. Both its Goa MLAs remain with the party. Four Congress MLAs in Gujarat and eight in Goa have joined the BJP.
Late realisation
The Congress-led Opposition alliance in Assam has been sending positive vibes following the single-phase April 9 assembly polls in the state. To begin with, the six-party grouping held a get-together at a resort in Guwahati on April 19 to discuss post-poll feedback and strategies. Apart from the party leaders, all 126 candidates attended the get-together. They pledged to remain united to pursue their goal to build a new and inclusive Assam. This was followed by the Congress setting up seven teams to tour the state to prevent post-poll irregularities during the counting of votes on May 4. These teams will inspect ‘strong rooms’, meet party candidates, and hold discussions with district administrations from April 25.
Political watchers, while welcoming the twin developments, wished the Opposition alliance had displayed the same urgency and acumen to stitch the coalition together much earlier and sent the right message to the voters. The alliance got strengthened only after the inclusion of the Raijor Dal on March 20 after months of uncertainty. This occurred five days after the Election Commission of India announced the poll dates for five states. Though ground reports suggest a late surge by the Opposition turned the polls into a contest from a no contest till a week before the polls, will this be enough to touch the majority mark of 64 in a House of 126? Or will it be a case of too little too late for the Congress-led Opposition alliance despite the record turnout of a record 85.96%?