Russia and Ukraine are holding their first direct talks to end their war since 2022, signalling the growing pressure on both — especially from the United States of America under President Donald Trump — to reach a ceasefire. Delegations from Moscow and Kyiv have gathered in Istanbul for the talks, which saw multiple plot twists even before the negotiations began. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who proposed the talks last Sunday, is not attending the meeting even though the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is in Turkey and has challenged his Kremlin counterpart to join the negotiations. Still, by late Thursday, there were enough indications that while the talks might not yield a definitive breakthrough, they could serve as a major turning point in determining the direction of the conflict. The Russian side is being led by a former culture minister who is a close aide of Mr Putin and who chaired Moscow’s delegation in previous, ultimately unsuccessful, rounds of negotiations in 2022. Ukraine, Mr Zelensky has announced, will be led by its defence minister. Yet, which way the diplomatic game that is underway tilts could ultimately be decided by Mr Trump who is also in the Middle East on a three-day trip that has seen him visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and now the United Arab Emirates.
Indeed, Mr Trump briefly dangled the possibility that he might also visit Istanbul for the talks. He is now no longer expected to join the mediation efforts himself, with Mr Putin not in attendance. But the US president has in recent weeks shown growing frustration with the failure of Russia and Ukraine to meaningfully proceed towards a ceasefire — a breakthrough that he had promised to the American people during his campaign for the presidential election. He has threatened to walk the US out of efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, a situation that could hurt the interests of both warring nations. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s partners have threatened Russia with fresh sanctions. At the heart of the present diplomatic standoff is the question of what a 30-day ceasefire, which Mr Zelensky has proposed, might look like. Russia is worried that Ukraine could use a brief truce to rearm itself and mobilise more soldiers. But the evidence of recent weeks also suggests that neither Moscow nor Kyiv wants to upset Mr Trump. In that, their time appears to be running out.