India’s pharmaceutical giants are hoping to earn fat profits as their customers get thinner. With the patent for blockbuster diabetes and weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy set to expire in March, and demand for obesity drugs soaring, Indian pharmaceutical companies are preparing for what analysts call a “gold rush” moment.
Firms are racing to launch affordable generics, knowing that even at current prices, demand is exploding.
Obesity rates have surged worldwide and India is no exception, fuelled by junk food, rising incomes and sedentary lifestyles. Nearly one in four Indian adults is now overweight or obese, according to the National Family Health Survey.
Health experts call India’s obesity problem an epidemic and warn by 2050 the country could have more than 440 million overweight or obese adults, close to a third of the population.
Excess fat, says Vikrant Shrotriya, India managing director of Ozempic pioneer Novo Nordisk, is “the mother of most metabolic diseases”, contributing to nearly 230 health problems. Indians’ expanding waistlines helps explain the surging appetite for weight-loss drugs such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, which many see as a convenient shortcut.
Semaglutide mimics a hormone known as GLP-1 that slows digestion, creating a full feeling and stabilising blood sugar. Until recently, only wealthy Indians could access GLP-1 drugs, often flying them in from the Gulf or other countries.
“People used to buy the drug from abroad for Rs 80,000 to Rs 90,000 a month,” says Dr Jothydev Kesavadev, founder and CEO of Jothydev’s Diabetes Research Centre in Thiruvananthapuram. “Now, they’re extremely happy it’s available here at a greatly reduced cost. So more and more people are using it.”
But the advent of generic GLP-1 drugs is expected to create a multi-billion-dollar global market, and the Indian market is expected to grow even more rapidly once the knock-offs arrive.
Novo Nordisk, the Danish pioneer of the GLP-1 class, is moving quickly to reinforce its presence in India. The company is launching Ozempic in India within days. It introduced Wegovy, which is given at a higher dose for weight loss, just five months ago. Global sales of Wegovy ballooned from US$1.5 billion to US$8 billion in 2024.
“We have introduced these things [in India] at 35 per cent lower price and acceptance is growing rapidly. I have never seen a drug class scale this fast,” says Shrotriya. When initial Indian sales proved slim, Novo Nordisk cut Wegovy’s price by 35 per cent, bringing it into the Rs 10,000 to Rs 16,400 range with a prescription. The lower price helped demand pick up speed.
But the real excitement lies ahead.
When the patent expires next March in India and other major markets, generic versions of semaglutide will flood the market at far lower prices.
At home, the monthly cost is expected to start at around Rs 4,000. Dr Reddy's Laboratories chief executive Erez Israeli has already announced plans to launch a cheaper copycat version of Wegovy in 87 countries next year. “US and Europe will open later... all the other Western markets will be open between 2029 to 2033,” Israeli says.
Biocon, Cipla and Torrent are also racing to develop and market off-patent obesity drugs.
Globally, the market for GLP-1 based weight-loss drugs, including semaglutide, was valued at around US$13.84 billion in 2024. Analysts expect it to nearly quadruple by 2030, reaching about US$48.84 billion.
In India, the domestic GLP-1 market was valued at roughly US$110.55 million in 2024, with analysts expecting rapid growth once cheaper generics arrive.
There may still be hitches. Novo Nordisk filed suit against Dr Reddy’s in the Delhi High Court, which initially ordered that the company should not sell semaglutide in India, although exports were permitted.
A separate legal challenge involving Natco Pharma is also under way. Even so, most companies are convinced Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide patent will expire on schedule and are preparing for a gold rush.
Demand has already exploded at today’s higher prices. Many people eager to lose weight are bypassing endocrinologists and going straight to general practitioners, a trend that worries specialists. The age profile is also shifting. Many more young people are rushing to try the treatment. “24-year-olds, 30-year-olds, 18-year-olds. There are more young people going only for weight loss,” says Kesavadev.
For the new generics, the heavyweight rival to Novo Nordisk in India is Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, which helps people lose weight and control blood sugar by acting on two gut hormones, often producing larger weight loss than older drugs like Ozempic.
Launched in March, Mounjaro has become India’s bestselling drug by value. A starter pen with four weekly doses sells for around Rs 14,000. In October alone, Mounjaro worth roughly Rs 100 crore is estimated to have been sold, and between March and October its sales may have reached Rs 330 to Rs 430 crore.
Mounjaro’s ingredient, tirzepatide, remains under patent until at least 2036 in most countries. Its results are dramatic, producing average weight loss of around 20 per cent compared with Wegovy’s 10–15 kg at full dose and Ozempic’s 10–12 kg.
Eli Lilly has cleverly positioned Mounjaro as a weight-loss drug first and a diabetes treatment second, a strategy that has clearly worked in India.
Sales of these drugs are unlikely to drop even when patients shed their kilos swiftly. Doctors note that people who stop the medication usually regain weight. This is partly because drugs such as semaglutide and tirzepatide reduce both weight and the desire to snack. Once medication stops, appetite returns. That means stopping the drugs entirely is rarely an option. Patients should return to experienced doctors who can adjust dosages carefully.
One specialist says: “Ozempic, we will give predominantly for diabetes. And Wegovy, since it requires a dose of up to 2.4 mg, we will give for obesity for substantial weight reduction. For mild weight reduction with diabetes, we will give Ozempic.”
Another adds: “If we stop the GLP-1 drugs, they will start eating more and they will again gain weight. So once the weight-loss target is achieved, we can continue them on a smaller dose.”
Almost every major Indian pharma company is preparing for the semaglutide opportunity. Zydus, Torrent and Eris are seen as early contenders for launch. Zydus Lifesciences MD Sharvil Patel told investors: “We strongly believe we will be in the first wave for semaglutide launch in India.”
Cipla has a tie-up with Eli Lilly under which it will distribute tirzepatide under the brand name Yurpeak in smaller towns and rural areas, a move that could dramatically widen the drug’s reach.
Other companies are exploring manufacturing semaglutide in bulk for sale to firms in India and abroad that will turn it into finished products. Biocon, for instance, has a deal with the Canadian company Biomm.
Semaglutide is not going off patent everywhere, but it will be off patent in key countries, including Brazil, Canada and China. Several Chinese manufacturers are also racing to dominate the generic semaglutide market and are expected to be tough rivals for Indian firms.
Doctors see extraordinary potential beyond diabetes and weight loss. Many expect GLP-1 drugs to help improve conditions linked to obesity such as cardiac disease and osteoarthritis. Researchers are examining possible benefits for liver disease, dementia, stroke and even alcoholism. Kesavadev believes the therapeutic horizon could be vast. “If this drug is successfully used, it will eliminate the necessity for treating many, many other illnesses,” he says.
But there are cautions. Dr Nihal Thomas in Vellore warns that high doses may cause loss of muscle mass along with fat. “If you are not exercising, it is not good,” he says. “If you are taking it, you should be serious about exercise.”
Meanwhile, both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are pushing ahead in their research labs on improved versions of these drugs. Eli Lilly has retatrutide, now in Phase 3 trials. Retatrutide activates three metabolic hormones at once — GLP-1, GIP and glucagon — a combination expected to produce even greater weight loss.
Novo Nordisk is developing Amycretin, now in Phase 2 trials. Amycretin combines GLP-1 with amylin, a hormone that strongly suppresses appetite and slows digestion. Early evidence suggests it may deliver greater weight loss than semaglutide. In global markets, both pipeline drugs are seen as potential blockbusters.
“If we tackle obesity effectively, metabolic diseases will fall by 10 to 15 per cent,” says Shrotriya.