What has pizza orders got to do with war?
A lot, if the Pentagon orders those pizzas.
A surge in takeout deliveries to the Pentagon — dubbed the “Pentagon Pizza Index” — has emerged as a surprisingly accurate predictor of major geopolitical events.
A viral theory shared online suggests that when the Pentagon loads up on pizzas, a global crisis — often military in nature — might be around the corner.
The theory found new life on June 12.
X account Pentagon Pizza Report noted a flurry of late-night pizza activity in Arlington, Virginia, near the US defence headquarters when Israel launched 'Operation Rising Lion' — airstrikes targeting military and nuclear sites in Iran.
“As of 6:59 pm ET nearly all pizza establishments nearby the Pentagon have experienced a HUGE surge in activity,” pointing to four specific joints: We The Pizza, Domino’s Pizza, District Pizza Palace and Extreme Pizza.
Ten minutes later, the account posted an update noting a “significant drop in activity.”
Almost an hour after that post, Iranian state TV confirmed loud explosions in Tehran, confirming speculation that a military operation had started.
The US denied any involvement in the strikes, secretary of state Marco Rubio stated: “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region,” according to a statement from the White House.
But US President Donald Trump told Reuters that he was aware of the impending strikes.
“We knew everything, and I tried to save Iran from humiliation and death. I tried to save them very hard because I would have loved to have seen a deal worked out,” he said.
The pizza-predictor theory gained further traction the following night.
On June 13, the same X account posted, “With about an hour left before close, the 2nd closest Domino’s to the Pentagon (about 8 min drive) is experiencing EXTREMELY high levels of traffic compared to a normal Thursday at about 11:00 pm ET.”
The Pentagon Pizza Report clarified that while there are numerous fast food restaurants inside the Pentagon complex, there are no pizza places — making external deliveries or nearby purchases a notable data point.
The Pentagon responded to the theory that it doesn't need to rely on outside pizza, since it already has access to sushi, sandwiches, donuts and more within the complex, according to Times of India.
The surge in activity, theorists claim, suggests overworked military personnel or officials burning the midnight oil in anticipation of or response to a developing situation.
“The kind of analytics we love,” wrote one X user. Another quipped, “Google Maps research beats some spy agencies around the world.” A third: “The Pentagon needs its own pizza place inside the building. This is embarrassing.”
What is The Pentagon Pizza theory
The Pentagon Pizza Theory is an unofficial and quirky analytical lens that suggests a spike in pizza or takeout orders to government buildings like the White House, Pentagon, or CIA and can serve as a warning sign of geopolitical developments.
The theory suggests that when government officials work late into the night-especially on urgent matters- such as military operations, coups or global conflicts - they order quick, convenient food items such as pizza to sustain long hours in the office.
The Guardian reported that pizza deliveries to the Pentagon surged right before the US invasion of Panama in 1989 and during the lead-up to Operation Desert Storm in 1991.
Alex Selby-Boothroyd, head of data journalism at The Economist, noted on LinkedIn that “The Pentagon Pizza Index has been a surprisingly reliable predictor of seismic global events—from coups to wars—since the 1980s.”
During the Cold War, Soviet intelligence even had a term for this: “Pizzint”—short for pizza intelligence.
On August 1, 1990, when a Domino's franchisee reported a spike in pizza orders to CIA buildings. The following day, August 2, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait.
In January 1991, Frank Meeks, then the owner of 43 Domino’s outlets in the Washington area, told Los Angeles Times: “The news media doesn’t always know when something big is going to happen because they’re in bed, but [pizza] deliverers are out there at 2 in the morning.”
Meeks added that the CIA ordered a record 21 pizzas on the night of August 1, 1990.
During Operation Neptune Spear in May 2011—the raid that killed Osama bin Laden—aides in the White House Situation Room reportedly stacked up boxes of pizza.
As per a People.com report, former White House communications director Robert Gibbs recalled, “The Situation Room looked like a college fraternity house, so many pizza boxes stacked up.”
CNN’s then-Pentagon correspondent Wolf Blitzer reportedly remarked back in 1990: “Bottom line for journalists: Always monitor the pizzas.”
Correlation is not causation — but next time pizza joints around the Pentagon go into overdrive, it might just be worth keeping an eye on breaking news.