A high-stakes geopolitical poker game is unfolding across three continents. Holding the high cards is US President Donald Trump. Stuck with a weaker hand but determined to stay in play is India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Seeking to sweep the chips off the table is China’s Xi Jinping, while Russian President Vladimir Putin watches both his own cards and those of the others.
At stake is Russian crude, flowing in large volumes to India and China despite Western sanctions. Trump wants to choke the gusher of Russian oil reaching these countries and reassert Washington’s influence over global energy markets.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, India has emerged as one of Moscow’s largest oil customers, buying discounted crude that Western nations largely avoid. The purchases have helped stabilise domestic fuel prices and keep inflation in check. While Washington under former president Joe Biden sometimes criticised India’s buying, it largely accepted it to maintain stability in global energy markets.
The key question is whether Trump was bluffing or telling the truth when he said he spoke to Modi and received an assurance that India would soon stop buying Russian crude. “I was not happy that India was buying oil,” Trump said. “He (Modi) assured me they will not be buying oil from Russia. That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.”
That statement raises two pressing questions. First, did Modi actually promise to halt Russian oil purchases? Second, are the Chinese likely to follow US instructions, given they are the world’s largest buyers of Russian crude, which fuels their industries and transportation networks?
China imports about 10 million barrels a day, with Russia now its top supplier. In 2023, Moscow overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s primary source of crude, highlighting how Western sanctions have deepened energy ties between the two powers. Beijing dismissed Trump’s comments, calling them “typical unilateral bullying and economic coercion” and warning of “firm countermeasures” if its interests are harmed.
India’s response was more guarded. The government defends its Russian oil imports as essential for energy security and domestic price stability. But did Trump and Modi actually speak on the phone last week? Asked to confirm a call, foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal offered a denial that appeared slightly unclear. He said only that “ensuring energy prices and secured supplies have been the twin goals of our energy policy. This includes broad-basing our energy sourcing and diversifying as appropriate to meet market conditions.” The statement was, he added, “in response to media queries on comments on India’s energy sourcing.”
Observers are left wondering whether a phone call took place and, if so, whether Modi offered Trump any assurance.
Moscow, meanwhile, has underlined its importance to India’s energy mix. “Russian oil is important for the Indian economy,” a government statement said. “We proceed from the understanding of Indian government policy and will continue discussing cooperation with India regarding oil and gas.”
Keep in mind also that the US and Europe wanted India to earlier wanted India to buy Russian oil to ensure that global oil prices didn’t shoot through the roof. Former US ambassador to India pointed this out again in a very recent interview, saying: “We didn’t forbid the buying of Russian oil but tried to develop a regime in which they would cap the price. That’s what India has abided by so it did what Europe and the US had asked only for this president to pull the rug from under and say you are funding the Russian war machine.”
Russia has courted Asian buyers to offset lost Western markets, offering discounts that were initially huge and now smaller. For Moscow, India and China are lifelines, bringing in crucial foreign exchange – but don’t forget that Europe’s also buying LNG from Russia. Of course India’s ties with Russia stretch back decades, covering defence cooperation, technology transfers, and military hardware, including the S-400 missile defence system.
The partnership dates to the Cold War, when Moscow backed India diplomatically and militarily, including during the 1971 Bangladesh war. Defence cooperation now spans energy and nuclear projects, with Russian firms investing in Indian refineries and joint ventures in Siberia.
That history complicates any rapid shift away from Russian oil, even under heavy US pressure. Yet India also values its growing relationship with Washington, particularly on trade and technology. Analysts suggest a possible quid pro quo: India may scale back Russian imports in exchange for improved trade access to the US market, with Washington softening its stance on agriculture and tariffs.
Such balancing acts rarely unfold neatly. Turning away from Russia risks undermining a relationship central to Delhi’s foreign policy. Defying Washington could strain ties with a powerful trading partner increasingly relied upon to counter China.
For now, there is little sign of retreat. In September, India bought 1.6 million barrels a day and that’s expected to rise to 1.8 million bpd in October. Most shipments are transported via a “shadow fleet” of tankers operating outside Western insurance systems. Analysts warn that a cut in Indian purchases could create a temporary glut of Russian crude, sold at heavy discounts through these fleets, depressing prices while leaving Russia more dependent on China or clandestine buyers. If India’s cutting back on buying Russian oil the effects won’t be visible till around January.
When Russian oil drove global prices up in 2022, the Biden administration tolerated India’s discounted purchases to prevent global shortages. Brent crude then hovered between $80 and $90 a barrel. Now prices have slumped to around $61, reflecting weaker demand and higher output. For the United States, whose shale oil is costly to produce, that is a concern. Trump may see an opening: by pressuring India and China to curb Russian purchases, he could tighten supply enough to nudge prices higher without triggering a spike.
It is a delicate balancing act. Push too hard, and prices could spike, hitting American consumers. Push too softly, and Russia continues to earn billions from discounted crude sales. Any misstep could undercut US strategy or strengthen Moscow’s geopolitical position.
Whether Trump’s gamble pays off remains to be seen. For Modi, it is a delicate hand to play, balancing economic pragmatism, old alliances, and the political demands of a deeply unpredictable partner across the table.