Rising global energy prices and falling approval ratings have forced US President Donald Trump into a difficult choice after a month of war with Iran: pursue a negotiated exit or escalate militarily at the risk of a prolonged conflict.
Despite intense diplomacy, Washington is struggling to contain an expanding crisis. Iran continues missile and drone strikes and has tightened its grip on Gulf oil and gas shipments, amplifying a global energy shock.
Analysts say the key question is whether Trump will scale back what critics call a “war of choice” or deepen US involvement — a decision that could shape both the conflict and his presidency.
Trump has told aides he wants to avoid a “forever war” and seek a negotiated exit, even as he warns of major escalation if talks fail. A 15-point proposal sent via a Pakistan backchannel reflects that push for an off-ramp, though prospects for a deal remain unclear.
“President Trump has poor options all around to end the war,” said Jonathan Panikoff, citing uncertainty over what would constitute a satisfactory outcome. A White House official maintained the campaign would end when US objectives are met.
At the same time, Trump is deploying additional US troops to the region and signalling the possibility of intensified action if Iran does not yield. Analysts say such pressure could create leverage but also risks a deeper, more protracted conflict.
One option under discussion is a final large-scale air assault on Iranian military and nuclear targets, followed by a declaration of victory. But that may ring hollow unless the Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil route — is fully reopened, something Iran has so far resisted.
The conflict is also taking a political toll at home. The war is widely unpopular, and Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, raising concerns among Republicans ahead of midterm elections.
Iran’s retaliation — including strikes across the region and disruption of oil flows — appears to have exceeded US expectations. “The Iranian government’s bet is they can take more pain for longer than their adversaries,” said Jon Alterman.
Trump has recently softened some threats, including pausing action against Iran’s power grid to allow space for diplomacy. Still, Iran has rejected key elements of the US proposal as unrealistic, while leaving the door open to further contacts.
Diplomacy is further complicated by deep mistrust and leadership changes in Tehran following US-Israeli strikes. Regional allies, including Israel and Gulf states, are wary — concerned both about potential US concessions and the risks of a prolonged conflict.
While US officials say there are no current plans to deploy ground troops, Trump has kept military options open. Analysts warn that any such move could trigger a broader conflict and higher US casualties.
For now, Trump is sending mixed signals — alternating between reassurances to markets and fresh threats — keeping allies and adversaries guessing.
“Trump traffics in contradictory signals,” said Laura Blumenfeld, calling him a “one-man ‘fog of war’ messaging machine.”