On March 5, voters in Nepal gave the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) a clear mandate to form a stable government for the next five years, awarding the party nearly a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives elections.
Under Nepal’s Constitution, the political party that secures a majority in an election forms the government. With the RSP winning a decisive majority, former mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City Balendra Shah appears almost certain to become the country’s next Prime Minister.
However, even as some members of the public question whether the party will actually appoint Shah as Prime Minister, RSP leader and newly elected MP Shishir Khanal has said Shah will indeed be chosen as the party’s parliamentary leader. “It is certain that Shah will become Prime Minister,” Khanal said.
Shah’s victory over K.P. Sharma Oli, the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal(UML), marked a significant political shift.
Oli, who has served four terms as Prime Minister and won six parliamentary elections, was defeated in his own home district by a margin of 49,614 votes. The result is widely seen as the beginning of a new era in Nepali politics. Elections held after the Gen Z movement also signalled a rejection of many of Nepal’s established political figures, including Oli, as voters turned away from traditional leaders. The RSP won 125 of the 165 directly elected seats.
The Nepali Congress emerged as the second-largest party after the election. Its president and influential young leader, Gagan Thapa, was defeated in Sarlahi constituency number 4 by Amaresh Kumar Singh, a candidate from the RSP. In another striking outcome, Manish Khanal, a 26-year-old participant in the Gen Z movement, also won his seat by a large margin.
Shah, known for his political image of speaking little but delivering results, was presented as the party’s prime ministerial candidate during the campaign. Political analyst Dev Raj Dahal said around 75 per cent of voters who supported the RSP did so with the intention of making Shah Prime Minister. According to Dahal, Shah’s non-corrupt and action-oriented image helped build public trust among voters. “People trust his tendency to take firm positions on national issues,” Dahal said.
He added that governing will be challenging in Nepal, where state institutions have become heavily politicised. Restoring their independence will be essential to ensure effective governance. If state institutions function effectively, he said, national security, the rule of law, communication systems and public service delivery will improve, helping meet public expectations.
Following the Gen Z movement, six parties have emerged as national parties from the House of Representatives elections. Of the total 10,08,35,027 votes cast, the RSP secured 51,83,493 votes under the proportional representation system, placing it in the lead.
The Nepali Congress received 17,51,172 votes, the CPN-UML secured 14,55,885 votes, the Communist Party of Nepal (NCP) gained 8,11,577 votes, and the Shram Sanskriti Party got 3,85,856 votes. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party, which has been campaigning in recent years for the restoration of a Hindu state and monarchy, received 3,30,384 votes, crossing the proportional representation threshold to become the sixth-largest party.
After the Gen Z movement, there was strong public demand to end corruption and bring new and young leaders into politics and government to build a prosperous Nepal. However, even young candidates from other parties who had demonstrated strong development performance failed to gain voter support in the directly elected contests.
Former Nepal Electricity Authority managing director Kulman Ghising, widely credited with ending Nepal’s long-standing power cuts and now the chair of the Ujyalo Nepal Party, was also defeated. In Kathmandu constituency number 3, former chief of the Kathmandu Metropolitican City Police, Raju Nath Pandey, defeated Ghising amid what many described as the “Balen wave”. Some voters commented that the electorate appeared to prioritise the party’s bell symbol over individual capability.
Under Nepal’s Constitution, the 275-member House of Representatives is composed of 165 members elected through the direct election system and 110 through proportional representation. With its sweeping victory, the RSP has emerged as the most powerful force in the Lower House.
Newly elected parliamentary member Tosima Karki said voters ultimately turned to the party because they were seeking a stable government and fundamental change in the country. According to her, frequent changes of government, coalition bargaining and persistent corruption led voters to give the party the responsibility of addressing the nation’s problems. “Today’s voters want honesty, accountability and transparent leadership in politics,” Karki said.
Sonika Rijal, 20, from Kathmandu, said she voted for the RSP, hoping for a stable government for the next five years and long-term political stability. She added that Gen Z voters would closely monitor leaders to ensure they do not repeat the pattern of traditional parties that make promises but fail to deliver once in power. “Just as we helped them win, we can defeat them in five years,” Rijal said.