The Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Bangladesh issued two press releases in the last 24 hours indicating the interim government's deep rooted determination to develop closer ties with Pakistan even at the cost of antagonising a large cross-section of the society.
The first one announced the arrival of an eight member delegation of the Pakistan Army -- led by General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, chairman, joint chiefs of staff committee (CJCSC), Pakistan Armed Forces -- at the Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport in Dhaka on Thursday morning.
The second release -- following a meeting between Imran Haider, Pakistan's envoy in Dhaka and Md. Touhid Hossain, foreign affairs adviser for Bangladesh -- was on the scheduled meeting of the Joint Economic Commission, a forum defunct for two decades, between the two countries from October 27 in Dhaka.
Needless to say, the twin releases indicated the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government's keenness to cosy up to Pakistan, which has been trying to woo successive governments in Bangladesh to normalise Islamabad-Dhaka relations.
The strained ties between the two countries -- a legacy of the Liberation War of 1971 that the erstwhile East Pakistan fought with the then West Pakistan, resulting in the birth of independent Bangladesh -- has seen signs of a thaw since Yunus took charge of the country on August 8, 2024, following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina regime in the face of a student-led protest.
Visa-free travel, scholarships
In a major diplomatic breakthrough about a year since the change of guard, Pakistan and Bangladesh signed a visa-free travel agreement for holders of government and diplomatic passports during the visit of Pakistan’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar to Dhaka this August.
During the high-profile visit, Pakistan also announced 500 scholarships for Bangladeshi students over the next five years, with 25 per cent allocated for medical education, besides increasing scholarships under its technical assistance programme and pledging specialised training for Bangladeshi civil servants.
The two latest communiques from Dhaka, however, indicate that the Nobel Peace Prize winner is now taking concrete steps to expand the scope of economic and military engagements between the two countries.
Bangladesh is well within its rights to select friends, but the question is whether the association will fulfil the objective of the nation's growth and development and ensure prosperity for its 180 million-plus population.
There are also concerns about the impact of this newfound bonhomie with Pakistan on peace and tranquility in the country, which was among the fastest growing economies in South Asia under for over a decade, that aspired to be a developed country by 2041 by riding on its stellar show in export-intensive sectors like readymade garments.
As a professor of economics at Chittagong University in Bangladesh in early ’60s and then again in the ’70s, Yunus's lectures were incomplete without lessons on cost-benefit analysis, a favourite tool of economists to weigh the costs and benefits of a move. At a time when Dhaka is rolling out a red carpet for Pakistan -- by pressing a "reset" button, as described by Yunus -- questions on whether the former professor worked out an economic cost-benefit analysis or opted for a political game are ringing loud across Bangladesh and beyond.
"I don't understand what we will gain from the visit of this Pakistan Armed Forces delegation... The composition of the team, headed by the joint chiefs of staff committee, makes it clear that they want to connect with the army, navy and air force and send their teams for the purpose of training," an exiled Bangladeshi army general told this columnist.
"Their armed forces are running on proxy from China... Given their state of the economy, they cannot give us anything for free. They can only radicalise the forces by igniting anti-India sentiment and create instability," he went on, wondering what the armed forces would gain from this association.
At a time when the interim government has announced plans to raise a private militia -- along the lines of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran -- exposing the Bangladeshi Armed Forces to Pakistani trainers will be a "disaster" for this region's security, he added: "They will indoctrinate our soldiers... It will be a disaster for the region's peace and security.”
Besides, experts have observed that as the terrain of Bangladesh, which shares borders with India and Myanmar, is markedly different from that of Pakistan -- believed to be one of the reasons why the then West Pakistan army got castled during the Liberation War -- their trainers do not have much to offer to Bangladeshi soldiers.
Given the trajectory of India-Pakistan relations in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, greater military engagement with Pakistan is definitely a bad idea, he said. "We will unnecessarily get sucked into a conflict as Pakistan will try to use our territory to settle scores with India," said the decorated officer.
Worry for India
It cannot be denied that heightened ISI activity in post-Hasina Bangladesh, which has seen a sudden spurt in arrivals from Pakistan following visa-free travel facilities for government and diplomatic passport holders, has become a major concern for New Delhi.
Yunus government's decision to scrap the mandatory physical inspection of imports from Pakistan -- after the resumption of direct maritime links between the two countries -- has also created a flutter in the Indian security establishment amid fear of import of arms and ammunition in Bangladesh.
Reports about such concerns can add to the woes of Bangladeshi central bank authorities, who are relying heavily on a $5.5 billion IMF loan programme to tackle the economic distress. A spate of industrial closures and drying up of foreign investment flows due to worsening law-and-order situation have become the biggest challenge for the Yunus regime.
"The interim government keeps claiming that the economy is doing fine, but cannot offer any credible numbers... Factories are closing, people are losing jobs and signs of economic distress can be seen all around us. Who will invest in a state of lawlessness?" asked the owner of multiple readymade garment units, who has lost crores of Taka due to cancellation of overseas orders.
"Now, we are given hope that ties with Pakistanis will help us. They are saddled with IMF loans and the conditions attached to them. They are saddled with the problem of Talibans and Baloch... How can they bail us out?" he asked.
The hype around the possible gains for Bangladesh from higher economic engagement with Pakistan was misplaced, said Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury Nowfel, who was the education minister in the Hasina government.
"The volume of bilateral trade has always been low and heavily tilted in favour of Pakistan. Out of about $865million worth of bilateral trade, Pakistan exported about $778 million... So, where are the gains?" he asked.
According to him, the trade basket -- wheat, pure woven cotton, non-retail pure cotton yarn, and heavy mixed woven cotton as exports from Pakistan and jute products and raw tobacco from Bangladesh -- has remained "restricted."
"The Yunus government has opened the Karachi to Chittagong route to expand trade... But the fact is, the maritime link is economically not viable. No importer is interested to connect with Pakistan," he added.
What Bangladeshis want
Pakistan's attempt to push for greater people-to-people ties by offering scholarships do not have takers, the former education minister added. "Bangladeshi students are smart... They know that Pakistani seal on their passports would make it difficult for them to obtain visa to the US and several European countries and so the scholarship programme has remained a non-starter," he said.
The renewed thrust on cultural exchanges -- despite some high profile concerts of Pakistani artists like Talha Anjum, Ali Azmat and Aima Baig in Dhaka -- has failed to enthuse people of Bangladesh, said Nowfel.
"We feel more connected with Bengal because of the similarities in language... Pakistan, on the other hand, has more socio-cultural connection with northern India," explained the exiled Awami League leader.
Thoughts of a large cross-section of the Bangladeshi society -- including those opposed to Awami League, perceived as a pro-India party -- converge with that of Nowfel, the businessman and the decorated general as they do not see any benefit from Yunus's push to align with Pakistan.
"As Bengalis, we cannot forget the atrocities committed by the Pakistanis during the Liberation War... There cannot be any reopening of ties with Pakistan," war veteran Fazlur Rahman, recently suspended from Bangladesh Nationalist Party on disciplinary grounds, was quoted repeatedly on mainstream and social media.
There are, however, voices in Bangladesh that have been canvassing for closer ties with Pakistan since the fall of Hasina. A section of the army veterans like Abdullahil Amaan Azmi, son of former Ameer of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami Ghulam Azam, and Col Abdul Haque, president, Retired Armed Officers Welfare Association, have been working hard to ensure greater ties with the Pakistani Armed forces to keep India at bay.
In January, Lieutenant General S.M. Kamr-ul-Hassan of the Bangladesh Army met Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir. In February, Bangladesh’s naval chief Admiral Mohammad Nazmul Hassan was in Islamabad. Two months later, Pakistani foreign secretary Amna Baloch travelled to Dhaka.
Not just these exchanges, the Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka and its officials have become more visible in social circles in recent months. Right-wing Islamist outfits like the Jamaat-e-Islami, the National Citizen's Party, a fledgling students outfit that grew under the fold of Jamaat leaders, and a section of the BNP -- who thrive on anti-India rhetoric -- have been promoting the Pakistan agenda in the policy discourse in Bangladesh.
Against this backdrop, Yunus is pushing the Pakistan line to keep the powerful political actors and the anti-India elements in the armed forces in good humour and prolong his stint at the helm. Clearly, the considerations in the chief adviser's cost-benefit analysis are different from that of ordinary people, who are bearing the brunt of lawlessness in Bangladesh.
Shahab Enam Khan, executive director, Bangladesh Center for Indo-Pacific Affairs, however, cited a real economic reason for Bangladesh to consider Pakistan as a trade partner.
"Bangladesh desperately needs trade diversification.... So, Pakistan can be an alternate source for us. More so because India has closed down its gates for Bangladesh," he said, before admitting the connectivity challenges.
"But I am not sure about the extent of engagement in defence matters because I think Pakistan will wait for a stable government to seal any deal," he added.