Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal with military and economic backing from China, a process that includes the development of battlefield nuclear weapons aimed at countering India’s conventional military advantage, according to the latest World Threat Assessment report released by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency on Sunday.
The report notes that Pakistan continues to view India as an existential threat and is pursuing a comprehensive military modernisation strategy.
“Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernization effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons, to offset India’s conventional military advantage,” the assessment said.
The Pakistani military’s priorities in the coming year are expected to include cross-border skirmishes with regional neighbors, counterterrorism operations, and continued development of nuclear weapons capabilities.
In 2024 alone, militants—including Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalist fighters killed over 2,500 people in Pakistan, despite ongoing military operations.
The modernisation of Pakistan’s nuclear program includes not only weapon systems but also a focus on securing nuclear materials and enhancing command-and-control mechanisms. “Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control,” the report stated.
Foreign materials and technologies for Pakistan’s WMD programs are “very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China,” the report said, “and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.”
The transfers, while strategic, are not without complications. A string of terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan particularly those working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has emerged as a point of tension between the two allies. Seven Chinese nationals were killed in Pakistan in 2024.
Still, China continues to provide both economic and military largesse to Pakistan, which remains heavily reliant on Beijing to sustain its defense and infrastructure needs.
While Islamabad’s military doctrine remains India-centric, its operational realities are increasingly shaped by asymmetric warfare and border instability.
The report warns that Pakistan’s pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons intended for use in regional conflicts adds another layer of risk to an already volatile security environment in South Asia.
Unlike strategic warheads, battlefield nukes are designed for use on the conventional battlefield, which raises questions about command and control in fast-moving engagements.
While Islamabad insists its nuclear doctrine is based on credible minimum deterrence, its ongoing weapons development suggests an evolving posture.
China’s role in enabling Pakistan’s modernisation through both direct transfers and grey-zone logistics has drawn international attention.
And as Islamabad doubles down on battlefield nuclear capabilities, the strategic stability of the region may hinge less on doctrines and more on crisis management under pressure.