Global carbon emissions linked to fossil fuels are projected to hit an all-time high of 38.1 billion tonnes this year, a report published on the sidelines of the COP30 climate summit has stated.
According to the Global Carbon Budget, the latest projected greenhouse gas volume shows a marginal increase over the last year.
The report also pointed out that India contributes 3.2 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas volume and its rate of emission growth, though still higher than the global average, is gradually declining owing to an emphasis on solar power production.
The report finds that the current volume of global greenhouse gas emission is about 10 per cent higher than 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, observing that the trend is a clear sign that despite progress, the world is still heading in the wrong direction.
During COP21 in Paris, the participating countries had inked an agreement to cut global emission collectively and rapidly to keep the global temperature rise within manageable limit.
The study report, prepared by Future Earth and World Climate Research Programme, projected a 1.1 per cent rise in global carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2025 compared to the last year. It claims that the remaining carbon budget for keeping the global temperature rise within the Paris Agreement-mandated 1.5°C would be exhausted in about four years if emissions continued at current levels.
A carbon budget is the maximum amount of cumulative net greenhouse gas emissions that can be released into the atmosphere without exceeding a specific level of global warming.
The study showed that India produced about 3.1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 and 3.19 billion tonnes in 2024, which is set to rise about 1.4 per cent to 3.23 billion this year.
“India’s emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% … slower than recent trends,” the report states, adding that “an early monsoon (that) reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months …combined with strong growth in renewables (has) led to very low growth in coal consumption”.
Figures point out that China is following the same pattern.
The report, however, shows China as the top emitter by gross volume in 2025, with projected emissions of 12.3 billion tonnes, followed by the US with 5 billion tonnes and India, which has a low per capita generation.
Under Donald Trump, the US is set to record an annual increase of around 1.9 per cent in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, after recording negative or no growth in the previous two years.
“With CO2 emissions still increasing, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer plausible,” said Prof Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study, adding that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C, which is 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be exhausted before 2030 at the current emission rate.
Corinne Le Quéré, a Royal Society Research professor at the UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, however, pointed out that “efforts to tackle climate change are visible, with 35 countries succeeding in reducing their emissions while growing their economies”.
“Unless we sharply cut down the fossil fuel emission soon, the situation may quickly go out of hand,” warned an India-based climate expert, adding that the latest report has also busted the myth of coal being the most critical emitting source as it contributes 43 per cent against 55 per cent contributed by oil and gas together. “The figures are showing that emissions from coal are increasing at a lesser rate compared to other fuels like gas and oil,” the expert added.