A pre-dawn meeting in Riyadh on Thursday served as the backdrop for an urgent diplomatic gambit. Foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan convened to engineer a "diplomatic off-ramp" to the war in Iran.
The primary hurdle, according to Arab officials involved in those discussions, was the lack of an Iranian counterpart thanks to Israel’s assassination of Ali Larijani, the national security chief viewed as a viable partner for the West, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Egyptian intelligence opened a channel with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to propose a five-day pause in hostilities, per the WSJ.
Florida reversal
This Middle Eastern groundwork triggered a dramatic shift 7,000 miles away. On Saturday night at Mar-a-Lago, US President Donald Trump had issued a 48-hour ultimatum: Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the "obliteration" of its power plants.
By Monday, Trump had abandoned the threats in favour of diplomacy, citing hope for a settlement and a desire to curb the war’s economic fallout. The markets reacted with a surge of optimism; the Dow Jones and S&P 500 saw their largest one-day gains since February, while Brent crude dropped 11 per cent to just under $100 a barrel.
Yet, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt remained cautious, warning that "speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final.
While the Wall Street Journal highlighted the President’s praise for "reasonable" Iranian leaders, The New York Times painted a picture of a conflict still very much in flux. According to four Iranian officials and a diplomat cited by NYT, the two nations have been exchanging messages through intermediaries to avert strikes on energy infrastructure.
These preliminary discussions reportedly included a phone call between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
The speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, took to social media to deny any such negotiations, accusing Trump of "issuing false statements to calm rattled energy markets."
Dire strait: The future of Hormuz
The artery for 20 per cent of global oil remains a sticking point. The Wall Street Journal reported that Arab leaders proposed a neutral committee to oversee the waterway, while the IRGC countered with a demand for transit fees.
Saudi Arabia flatly rejected this, fearing it would entrench Iranian influence over Gulf exports.
Asked about future control of the strait, Trump told reporters: "Maybe me—me and the ayatollah," referring to the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Despite the talk of a summit in Pakistan or Turkey, The New York Times noted that the war rages on multiple fronts, with the US and Israel carrying out fresh strikes on Monday even as Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Witkoff lead the push for a deal.