In recent weeks, China has been practising unusual manoeuvres off its southern coast involving three special barges. The vessels have linked up one behind another, forming a long bridge that extends from deeper waters onto the beach.
That feat has been a warning to Taiwan.
The vessels’ debut suggests that China’s People’s Liberation Army may be a step closer to being able to land tens of thousands of troops and their weapons and vehicles on Taiwan’s shores, experts say. Developing that capability has been a priority of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his quest to absorb Taiwan — either by negotiations or by war.
China has been conducting military exercises around Taiwan for years, including a new surge this week. But even as China’s drills have intensified, and its missiles, warships and fighter jets have advanced, many experts have doubted that the Chinese military could cross the Taiwan Strait with the speed and numbers needed for a successful invasion. Strong winds and currents for much of the year add to the dangers of trying to land on Taiwan.
If the new barges go into service, they could expand China’s options for where and when to land on Taiwan, making Xi’s threat of a possible invasion more plausible.
The vessels have been practising in waters about 350km southwest of Guangzhou, the city where they were built. The barges have retractable, heavy-duty legs that work like giant stilts. The legs protrude from the deck when in transit and are lowered, when the vessels are in position, onto the seabed to steady the vessels against the waves. The barges then thrust out long extendable bridges, forming a 2,700ft causeway that links the vessels together and connects to the shore.
Pictures from foreign satellites have shown the barges practising with civilian Chinese cargo ships and ferries that could carry vehicles and people to be offloaded onto the causeway. China featured the barges on a recent programme about military rivalry with Taiwan, warning that they could play a potential role in an attack.
“This equipment is a bridge and a port combined into one,” Wei Dongxu, a CCTV commentator on the show, said of the barges. Once China gains dominance in the skies and seas, he said, ships loaded with military vehicles could dock with the barges and unload the vehicles, enabling heavy combat equipment to land without touching the water.
Some American officials have said that Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be able to take Taiwan by 2027.
Crossing the Taiwan Strait could be perilous for China’s forces, even with more options for getting ashore. The US could send forces to help Taiwan against China, raising the risk of war between two nuclear powers.
But the three landing barges showed that China’s armed forces were rapidly developing ways to get over logistical hurdles of a possible invasion, said J. Michael Dahm, a retired US Navy intelligence officer and co-author of a study of the new barges.
Dahm said that he used to doubt that the Chinese military would meet Xi’s goal of readiness by 2027. “I will tell you my mind has really been changed over just the last 12 to 18 months, seeing the scale of infrastructure and capability improvements that the Chinese have made,” such as the landing barges, he said.
The barges first came to public attention early this year, after H.I. Sutton, a defence analyst, reported that they were being built in a shipyard in Guangzhou.
The Times analysed satellite imagery and marine traffic data that showed that several commercial ferries and cargo ships took part in the exercises. The commercial ships sidled up to the two larger barges farthest from shore, apparently practising how to get in place to offload vehicles.
The satellite images did not show any vehicles actually being unloaded. But ferries and cargo ships that took part were of a kind built or modified to handle heavy armed vehicles, like armoured personnel vehicles or even tanks, said Jason Wang, the chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a company that analyses satellite images and other data, including about the Chinese military.
“These barges will open up new locations to deliver troops and material for Xi Jinping to choose from” along Taiwan’s coast, Wang said. He estimated that in one day the barges could offload hundreds of armoured vehicles.