The détente between China and the US was already fragile. Now it faces a new strain: the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, an American-backed strike that Beijing denounced as a blatant attempt at regime change.
China has moved quickly to condemn the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with its top diplomat, Wang Yi, accusing both governments of assassinating another country’s leader and pledging to support Tehran’s sovereignty and security.
The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came less than two months after American forces captured President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, another close partner of China. Together, the moves amount to a forceful display of American power against governments China has cultivated as part of its broader global strategy.
Yet for Beijing, the question is how far to defend Iran, its closest diplomatic partner in West Asia, without hurting its own economic interests or worsening tensions with
the US.
Already, the fighting has touched China directly. China’s foreign ministry said a Chinese national had been killed in Tehran and that Beijing was scrambling to evacuate thousands of its citizens.
Beijing is likely troubled by the potential ripple effects of the American and Israeli strikes. China is the world’s largest importer of energy and Iran has already threatened to “set on fire” any ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway off Iran’s southern coast through which a fifth of the world’s oil travels. That could drive up prices and hit China’s economy.
As Beijing navigates the various dimensions of the fallout from Iran, it is likely most focused on its relationship with the US.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are weeks away from a summit in Beijing where they are expected to extend a trade truce between the world’s two-largest economies.
The White House has said the meeting would take place from March 31 to April 2. China has yet to confirm details of the meeting and a foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday only that the two countries were in talks.
China could still consider cancelling or postponing the meeting with Trump to show its displeasure with Washington’s use of military power against Iran.
Despite its sharp rhetoric over Iran, Beijing has strong incentives to keep its relationship with the US on an even keel, analysts said. China wants Washington to agree to extend the trade truce, reduce its support for Taiwan and ease its restrictions on technology exports.
“Beijing cares much more about managing the United States than events in the Middle East,” said Julian Gewirtz, a former senior director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
The trip to China, which would be the first by an American President since Trump went in 2017, is seen as vital for maintaining the truce Xi and Trump reached last October in Busan, South Korea. Before that, China and the US had engaged in a blistering trade war that sunk relations to their lowest point in more than 50 years.
For China, postponing or cancelling the summit would carry costs of its own. Trump has signalled a willingness to avoid confrontation with Beijing. His administration recently delayed announcing a package of arms sales to Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing. It has eased restrictions on sales of advanced American chips to China. Trump refrained from mentioning China in last week’s State of the Union address, an unusual omission.
The legal landscape has also shifted in favour of Beijing, with the recent Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of President Trump’s tariffs. His new 10 per cent tariff on global imports is beneficial to China.
Walking away from the meeting could mean forfeiting that momentum.
New York Times News Service