There are so many unfamiliar faces; cardinals are wearing name tags. The Vatican guesthouse for out-of-towners coming to choose the next pope is overbooked. Daily Vatican meetings have taken on the feel of theological speed-dating sessions.
“The cardinals don’t know each other so well,” said Cardinal Anders Arborelius of Sweden, who has spent recent days in a crowded Vatican lecture hall listening to the concerns and learning the names of the record number of cardinals Pope Francis appointed, who will choose his successor.
Cardinal Arborelius sat in a section reserved for a small group of newcomers from countries that never had cardinals before. They included one from Mali, who, he said, had “disappeared” after the first day, and from Laos, who, many days into the meetings, “hasn’t turned up”. He himself, he said, felt “lost all the time”.
Nevertheless, he and scores of other cardinals will file into the Sistine Chapel starting Wednesday afternoon to cast ballots for the next pope under seclusion and Michelangelo’s frescoes, in one of the world’s oldest dramas.
All papal elections are unpredictable. But this conclave has so many unfamiliar faces with unfamiliar politics, priorities and concerns that it could be more fractious than usual.
It also comes at a particularly perilous moment for a church that Francis left deeply divided, with progressive factions pushing for more inclusion and change, and conservatives seeking to roll things back, often under the guise of unity.
The first pope in centuries from outside Europe, Francis expanded the church’s global reach to better reflect the faith’s diversity. The conclave that chose him 12 years ago had 115 cardinals from 48 countries. This conclave is expected to have 133 voting-age cardinals (those under 80), representing about 70 countries. The new pope will need at least 89 votes.
One of the most pressing questions before the cardinals will be whether to go farther up the road Francis pointed to, or to decide to bring the papacy “home” to Europe.
The early favourites reflect those tensions. Among them are Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, an Italian who was the Vatican’s secretary of state under Francis. He is seen as someone who might be able to straddle both moderate and more liberal camps, though is apparently objectionable to conservatives.
Another oft-mentioned contender is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, who embodies the impulse for a progressive from the church’s expanding realms. And finally, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, the Italian Patriarch of Jerusalem, who like Francis is known for his pastoral sensibility, but who is, again, Italian.
The newbies
Not everyone is thrilled with the acceleration of geographic diversity and the new crop entrusted to decide the future of the Roman Catholic Church.
Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller of Germany, a conservative who used to run the church’s office on doctrine before Francis fired him from that job, recalled a meeting during Francis’s pontificate when one of the new guys — “a cardinal of 25 Catholics in an isle in the South Sea” — came into a subcommittee meeting.
“He said three things,” Cardinal Müller said. “First, I don’t speak English. Second, I know nothing of theology. And third, I didn’t know why they made me cardinal. Now he is a voter of the pope.”
The Italians
There is a feeling among some in the room that “now we need an Italian pope”, noted Cardinal Arborelius, the newcomer from Sweden. Other cardinals, too, have noticed the Italians seem to be suffering papal withdrawal.
“For how long have they not had a pope?” Cardinal Juan José Omella of Barcelona said with a smile.
The answer: 47 years. Forever, in Italian time.
The unlikely allies
There are no shortage of potential coalitions.
Voting blocs may form around geography, ideology, language or cultural sensitivities. Or around priorities like financial transparency or doctrinal issues. They may even form around old-fashioned score-settling or antagonisms.
Some Vatican officials said the Asian cardinals were considered well-organised and tight-knit, making themselves a powerful bloc that could join with more progressive Americans and South Americans who do not want an Italian, for instance.
Instead, the speculation goes, they could line up behind someone like Cardinal Tagle of the Philippines.
To do that, they would have to override the likely objections of conservatives who have rolled their eyes at Cardinal Tagle weeping when he received his red cardinal’s hat from Pope Benedict in 2012 or videos widely shared recently of him dancing in a church and singing Imagine by John Lennon.
Conservatives appointed by the previous pontificates are considered a cohesive group, even if they do not have decisive numbers. Some liberal cardinals worry the conservatives will seek a force multiplier by looking to Africa.
Africa is home to one of the church’s most booming Catholic populations, and to some of its most conservative cardinals, many of whom are deeply opposed to the inclusion of LGBTQ Catholics.
The most frequently cited candidate from Africa is Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, of the Democratic Republic of Congo. He was a favourite of Francis, who appreciated his pastoral pedigree.
But he opposed a rule change Francis made permitting blessings of same-sex unions. Instead, he has pushed other priorities, like pastoral care for polygamists.
The emphasis does not thrill European conservatives, and the question is whether they are willing to overlook it to advance other priorities.