Pakistan Defence Minister Khwaja Mohammad Asif has explosively promised that his country’s nuclear arsenal, “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia under a new defence alliance struck between the two countries.
The agreement has ignited a storm of speculation across the Middle East and, of course, India, where it has raised urgent questions about whether Riyadh would side with Islamabad in a future conflict and how the pact might affect New Delhi’s warming ties with Saudi Arabia.
The other big debate is whether the deal signals a shift away from US dominance in the Gulf amid a shifting Middle East and Israel’s shock attack on Hamas targets in Qatar – or has the agreement received Washington’s quiet endorsement?
Asif’s explosive promise was swiftly counterbalanced by Pakistan’s foreign office, which insisted the pact is “defensive in nature and not directed against any third country.”
The agreement, signed during Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s red-carpet visit to Riyadh, complete with F-15 escorts and a 21-gun salute, states that “aggression against either country shall be considered aggression against both.”
That provision has sparked serious concerns in Delhi, which has built strong economic and diplomatic relations with Riyadh in recent years. The foreign ministry said India will study the implications for national security.
Does the pact mean Saudi Arabia would rush to Pakistan’s assistance in the event of war, or even a limited conflict, with India? An editorial in Dawn fleshed out the dilemma: “While the Saudis may have friendly ties with New Delhi, will Riyadh help defend Pakistan if India attacks this country again? These queries need clear answers.”
Defence minister Asif has been unambiguous, saying: “Any aggression against one country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
Separately, deputy Prime Minister and Foreign minister Ishaq Dar suggested to reporters in London that similar pacts might be signed with other countries. “It is premature to say anything, but some other countries want to enter into an agreement of this nature,” he said, though he played coy about naming potential partners.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia’s military interests have been intertwined for decades. And Pakistan has long been a big beneficiary of Saudi aid. But analysts say direct Saudi military intervention on Pakistan’s behalf is improbable, given Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s own outreach to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three trips to the oil-rich kingdom. Modi, in fact, was on Saudi soil when the Pahalgam terrorist attack took place in Kashmir. Still, under the terms of the new agreement, the Saudis might extend aid to Pakistan in the form of cash or weaponry.
Also, what could Pakistan’s troops actually do in Saudi Arabia? Who are the enemies they might face? Could they be deployed to Yemen to confront the Houthis, who have repeatedly clashed with Saudi forces and nearly shut down Red Sea shipping lanes?
Alternatively, Pakistan may continue doing what it has done for decades which is providing largely behind-the-scenes support. Pakistani troops have trained Saudi forces, guarded borders, and served in counterterrorism roles.
Pakistani journalist Khurram Husain explained: “Of course, Pakistan cannot extend a full security umbrella over the Middle East. It would be silly to even try.”
However, Husain continued, “Pakistan can credibly work at lower thresholds such as providing training for officers and fighter pilots, helping build doctrine, advising on how to build up air defences and better utilise early warning systems, detecting vulnerabilities, upgrading intelligence gathering, selecting hardware, advising on missile programme development and much more.” But until now, Pakistan has resisted formal nuclear cooperation.
Many analysts believe the US is quietly supportive of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan moving closer. A telling hint came from remarks made by President Donald Trump in the UK. He revealed that the US wants to regain control of the giant Bagram airbase, 70km from Kabul, which was handed over to the Taliban in July 2021. Why? Trump admitted candidly that Bagram’s location, less than 500 km from China’s border, would be invaluable for surveillance and deterrence.
Indian analysts suggest that Washington is considering a complex regional bargain involving Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and, of course, the US itself. This would see Saudi Arabia investing in Afghanistan and in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, both believed to hold rich deposits of rare earths and other strategic minerals.
One possible architect of this thinking may have been former US Central Command chief Gen Michael Erik Kurilla, who has long championed Pakistan as “a phenomenal counter-terrorism partner.”
Kurilla, who retired earlier this year, even invited Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir to his retirement party in Florida, where Munir reportedly made several strong statements about India. Kurilla has also praised Pakistan publicly before US lawmakers, reinforcing his close ties to Islamabad’s military establishment.
Husain of Dawn argues that Pakistan’s rulers are adept at this kind of manoeuvring: “Put them (Pakistan’s rulers) on a geopolitical chessboard and suddenly they are on home turf. This is a game they have learnt to play with skill over the decades. And to understand this game, it is necessary to see one key equation around which a lot of geopolitics revolves. This is the equation that ties guns to money.”
Yet the risks of this new pact are considerable. A commentator told the Financial Times: “Pakistan will need to be very, very careful not to rattle its geopolitical sweet spot with China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US.”
He added: “If this draws India and Israel closer together, brings further sanctions to Pakistan’s ballistic missile programme, and fuels India’s efforts to isolate Islamabad, it might end up as a strategic blunder.”
Saudi Arabia, for its part, is confident. “Saudi Arabia is betting that its own close ties to India will endure,” Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator close to the royal court, told the newspaper.
Why then is the US countenancing such risky plays in this volatile part of the world? Analysts point to Washington’s struggle to contain China’s growing influence in South Asia and beyond. The US has concluded that India alone cannot balance Beijing. It is concerned by recent developments in Nepal and Chinese gains in Myanmar, and sees Pakistan-Saudi collaboration as a useful counterweight.
As for the economic angle, Husain believes the deal will provide Pakistan with breathing space but little more. “Whether or not the resultant bargain is sufficient in size to pay for the country’s economy to move from stagnation to growth remains to be seen.”
He adds: “This may not be enough to give us the old-fashioned boom years we are used to having as part of these bargains in the past. But it will be enough to ensure there is no painful bust either.”
Summing up the bargain in blunt terms, Husain says: “We’ve got the guns, they’ve got the money, and it seems ordained that sooner or later the twain shall meet.”