Global temperature driven by human activities rose to 1.37°C in 2025, the third warmest year ever, and is projected to breach 1.5°C in about four years, a study presented on Thursday on the sidelines of the ongoing global climate meeting here in Germany pointed out.
The study has revealed that all indicators of global climate change, including daily temperature, have increased since the last UN assessment report was published about five years ago.
The study undertaken by around 70 frontline scientists across 17 countries, including India, has been published in the Earth System Science Data journal.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) was published in stages between 2021 and 2023.
“Human activities pushed global warming to 1.37°C in 2025 (the third warmest year ever) and its level is projected to surpass 1.5°C in about four years. Crucially, the rate at which heat is accumulating in the Earth system suggests high levels of future warming,” the latest report warned.
“…Relative to pre-industrial times, over the 2016-2025 decade, land temperatures increased by 1.81°C, and ocean temperatures by 1.03°C,” it added.
The pre-industrial temperature is considered the global warming baseline because it is assumed that human-induced warming began with the Industrial Revolution between 1850 and 1900.
According to data, India’s surface air temperature has risen significantly over the past century, leading to severe and prolonged heat waves. Summer monsoon, a lifeline for agriculture and economy, has become unpredictable. Monsoon rainfall is forecast to be at least 10 per cent less this year than the long-term average because of global climate change, coupled with a severe El Niño phenomenon.
The report shows that all 11 key indicators of global climate change considered for the study have increased since the UN’s AR6 report. Marine heat waves rose the highest (by 61.1 per cent), followed by energy imbalance (41.8 per cent), maximum daily temperature (23.9 per cent) and human-induced warming (15.9 per cent).
Greenhouse gas emissions have risen by 2.1 per cent, with all major constituents such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides rising by 3.8. 3.8 and 2.2 per cent, respectively.
“Clearly, all the data are showing that the global climate is going in the opposite direction, and the politicians are to blame for the suicidal trend,” said an expert at the Bonn global climate meet.
Prof. Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and the lead author of the report, told The Telegraph: “Earth’s energy imbalance, a key indicator that measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system and provides a crucial measure of the pace of climate change, is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades. Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s.”
The latest report has found that global greenhouse gas emissions are now at an all-time high, reaching 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and equivalent emissions (CO2e), mainly from the burning of fossil fuels.
“Our study demonstrates that nearly all of the warming over the last decade is driven by human activities. The impacts on livelihoods and ecosystems are already being felt worldwide, and will accelerate as temperatures continue to increase,” said Samantha Burgess, a weather expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.