The scorching summer might feel a little more merciful this election to its generals and foot soldiers, with Bengal headed to Assembly polls spread over just two phases.
This is by far the fewest since the Assembly polls of 2001 and the general election of 2004, when the state saw single-phase polls.
During the last Assembly elections in 2021, Bengal had voted in an oppressive eight phases, braving not just the heat but a killer pandemic at its worst.
If that record number of phases was meant to ensure more campaign time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the move boomeranged spectacularly in the face of Mamata Banerjee’s appeal and Trinamool’s organisation and manpower.
This time, the BJP wanted a shorter election — as did the Congress and the Left — and the Election Commission has obliged.
Altogether 152 Assembly constituencies across 16 northern and southern districts, from Darjeeling to West Midnapore, will vote on April 23. The remaining 142 seats spread across seven districts, including Calcutta, will do so on April 29.
Officials said then chief election commissioner B.B. Tandon had introduced multiple-phase elections to Bengal in 2006 as a way of containing violence through the heavier deployment of forces.
Since the five-phase 2006 polls, the Assembly elections of 2011 and 2016 were held in five and seven phases, respectively. Even the Lok Sabha polls have been of five or more phases.
In 2021, every party other than the BJP had pleaded for fewer phases, particularly since poll rallies during the devastating second wave of Covid would threaten countless lives. The mounting toll from the pandemic is believed to have, in the end, played a part in the BJP’s resounding defeat.
“With regards to the Bengal elections to be held in two phases instead of eight phases earlier, the commission has had detailed deliberations and with the considered opinions, it was found necessary to reduce the number of phases and bring it down to an extent that is convenient to everybody,” chief election commissioner Gyanesh Kumar said on Sunday.
Political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty said: “This (two-phase election) undoubtedly marks a shift in the electoral history of Bengal, with the Election Commission moving away from its own narrative.”
He added: “We now have to see its impact in terms of violence, security and (the conduct of) free-and-fair elections.”
District arithmetic
Many believe that political calculations have dictated the district-wise voting schedule: Most of the first-phase districts are BJP strongholds.
“Once the first phase is done, the BJP will have the opportunity to spread the narrative that it has won most of the 152 seats,” Chakraborty said.
“Most of the seats that vote in the second phase are Trinamool strongholds. So, there may be some political calculation, but we have to see whether it helps the BJP.”
Chakraborty flagged the 60 lakh “under adjudication” voters to say that this was the first election to be declared in Bengal without finalising the total number of voters.
The BJP’s official communication to the Election Commission during the full-bench meeting had demanded a single-phase or two-phase election. The party was visibly happy on Sunday.
“We welcome the decision of the Election Commission,” state BJP president Samik Bhattacharya said.
Multiple police sources said the main challenge in conducting a two-phase election would be to maintain law and order, given that polls in Bengal have historically been associated with violence and intimidation.
The commission will therefore have to deploy more central forces, they said.
“When elections are held in multiple phases, central forces can be moved from one place to another,” a police officer who has been handling elections for over 15 years said.
Asked about the law-and-order challenge posed by a two-phase election, leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari said: “If the Election Commission wants, it is possible (to have a peaceful election).”
A senior BJP leader underlined that there would be no shortage of central forces for Bengal, as the elections in Kerala, Assam and Puducherry would be over by April 9.
“This means all the central forces from these places can be engaged in Bengal for the first phase, and those from Tamil Nadu (which votes on April 23) too can be brought in for the second phase,” the politician said.
Trinamool said it didn’t matter whether the elections were held in one, two or a dozen phases — the people of Bengal would cut the BJP tally down to less than 50.
“In eight phases, they got 77 seats. In two phases, it will be 27,” party state general secretary Kunal Ghosh said.