Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Matua-dominated areas of Ranaghat in Nadia district is politically significant for the BJP, as a survey based on SIR data shows that a large number of those who failed to map themselves with the 2002 electoral rolls are the Hindu refugees from Bangladesh.
Modi will address a public meeting at Taherpur Netaji Park in Ranaghat, where he is expected to inaugurate/lay the foundation stone for multiple development projects worth ₹3,200 crore.
According to multiple BJP sources, Modi is likely to specifically address members of the Matua community at the Ranaghat rally, as a large section of the community has been anxious about the outcome of the ongoing special intensive revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls.
“Modi ji will certainly address the Matuas to reassure them and ease their concerns ahead of next year’s crucial Assembly elections. The Matuas are worried, as they are one of the communities that played a key role in the BJP’s rise in Bengal,” said a senior BJP leader.
Out of 17 Matua-dominated Assembly constituencies in Nadia and North 24-Parganas, the BJP won all the seats in the 2021 Assembly elections. The party also won the Ranaghat and Bongaon Lok Sabha seats in the Matua belt in the 2024 general elections.
However, since the SIR began, competing narratives regarding the future of the Matua community — many of whom migrated after 2002 — have been pitched by both the BJP and the Trinamool Congress. While the BJP has asked Matuas not to worry and has launched a massive drive to facilitate citizenship for eligible members of the community, the Trinamool Congress has claimed that the SIR would create a fresh crisis for them, despite their names being included in the latest electoral rolls.
After the draft electoral rolls were published on December 16, the Sabar Institute, a research platform, released data showing that the rate of unmapped voters was highest among the Matua community.
The study found that the average percentage of electors who failed to map themselves in the Matua belt stood at 9.43 per cent, compared to the state average of 3.99 per cent. Data analysis by the Sabar Institute showed that among Matua-dominated constituencies, the unmapping rate was highest in the Gaighata Assembly segment at 14.51 per cent, followed by Bagda and Kalyani at 12.69 per cent and 11.92 per cent, respectively.
“We analysed Election Commission data and found that the rate of unmapped voters is significant in the Matua belt,” said researcher Ashin Chakraborty, who compiled the draft roll statistics along with fellow researcher Souptik Halder.
Sabir Ahamed, a prominent social researcher who is also associated with Sabar Institute, said the study established that the primary sufferers of the SIR process were Hindu refugees in the Matua belt.
“We examined the draft electoral rolls to verify claims about the narrative of exclusion of lakhs of infiltrators. However, our findings so far show that a large section of those unmapped in the SIR process are Matuas or other Hindus,” Ahamed said.
BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya claimed that no Hindu refugees who were forced to leave Bangladesh would be excluded from the voter list.
“No Hindu refugee will be removed from the voter list. I urge all eligible individuals to immediately apply for citizenship under the CAA, as time is short,” Bhattacharya said.
He also claimed that if the Election Commission arranges a live telecast of hearings for doubtful voters, the true picture of Bengal’s electoral rolls would emerge.
Trinamool Congress spokesperson Arup Chakraborty said that while the Prime Minister would attempt to woo the Matuas at Saturday’s rally, the community would ultimately bear the consequences.
“We warned the Matuas from day one after the SIR was announced, and our apprehensions have now come true, with a large number of Matuas being unmapped. We hope the Matuas will realise how the BJP has pushed them into uncertainty through an unplanned SIR. Unfortunately, the Matuas played a key role in the BJP’s rise in Bengal,” Chakraborty said.
For the BJP leadership, mobilising the Matua community for Prime Minister Modi’s meeting at Taherpur on Saturday has emerged as a serious challenge, as the unmapping of a significant section of the community has triggered anxiety and resentment among voters.
A source said the developments have placed the BJP in an awkward position, with party leaders facing uncomfortable questions from voters who earlier played a decisive role in securing the Ranaghat and Bongaon parliamentary seats for the party.
Sensing trouble, the BJP launched an aggressive outreach drive, with party workers visiting homes and formally inviting community members to attend the Prime Minister’s meeting. Printed invitation cards were distributed, and local leaders made repeated personal appeals.
In Matua-dominated pockets of Ranaghat and adjoining Bongaon, Mandal committee leaders were seen appealing with folded hands, urging residents to attend the meeting and hear the Prime Minister in person.
BJP’s Ranaghat MP Jagannath Sarkar said the party’s priority was to ensure maximum turnout. “We have formally invited residents so that they attend the event and hear what the Prime Minister has to say on their issues,” he said.