Over 57 per cent of the 90.82 lakh names removed from the Bengal voter list after the SIR drive are from 10 districts bordering Bangladesh and more than 70 per cent of these people are Muslims, district-wise data made available by Election Commission sources show.
“The total number of deleted voters from the border districts of Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, North and South Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad, Nadia, South and North 24-Parganas is 52.24 lakh. It appears that voters of these districts failed to produce papers specified by the poll panel in larger numbers compared to the 13 other districts,” a poll panel source said.
The ruling Trinamool Congress had done exceedingly well in the 10 districts in the 2021 Assembly elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In 2021, Trinamool had bagged 110 of the 151 Assembly
seats in these districts, while the BJP won 41. In 2024, Trinamool was ahead in 91 Assembly segments in this area, while the BJP led in 48. The Congress-Left Front combine was ahead in 12 seats.
“Clearly, these 10 districts had been Trinamool strongholds in the previous few elections. But the scenario could change post-SIR. As more than 70 per cent of the names struckoff the electoral rolls are Muslims, who have predominantly supported Trinamool inelections since 2011,many seats may no longer be safe for the ruling party,” said a political observer, requesting anonymity.
In the 2021 Assembly polls, Trinamool had won 21 of the 151 seats in the 10 border districts by margins of less than 20,000 votes. In 2024, the number of such segments in favour of Trinamool was 41.
“On an average, more than 30,000 voters have been deleted in each of these seats. As a significant number of Muslim voters reside in most bordering districts, the contest could be close in the constituencies where Trinamool was ahead by a margin of less than 20,000,” the observer said.
He added that if Trinamool faltered in these 151 seats, its overall performance could take a beating.
“If the BJP manages to win 50 per cent of these seats, it could put the ruling party in a spot as we will improve on our past performance in central Bengal this time,” a source in the BJP said.
The observer said that if the 11 seats in Calcutta are taken into consideration, the battle between Trinamool and the BJP could become even more interesting.
In Calcutta, Trinamool had won all 11 seats in the 2021 Assembly polls. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the ruling party was ahead in nine Assembly segments, while the BJP led in two.
Trinamool was ahead of the BJP by margins of less than 20,000 in five of these nine segments. These segments include constituencies with a substantial concentration of minorities, such as Rashbehari, Bhabanipur and Chowringhee. The number of voters deleted post- SIR in these four Assembly segments is higher than the vote difference between Trinamool and the BJP in 2024.
Trinamool’s 2024 lead margin was 8,297 votes in Bhabanipur, 1,691 in Rashbehari, 14,645 in Chowringhee, 3,575 in Manicktala and 7,268 in Kashipur-Belgachia.
“Given the fact that a total of 6.97 lakh names have been deleted from the pre-SIR rolls of 24.13 lakh in the 11 Calcutta seats, it could be a touch-and-go situation in seven-eight seats,” the observer said.
Political observers said the large number of deletions in the border districts would also help the BJP in its campaign.
“The BJP had claimed that the SIR would remove from the voter list Muslims from Bangladesh who were illegally staying in India and had even made it to the electoral rolls. If such a large number of the deleted voters are from the bordering districts, it will certainly strengthen our party’s narrative,” a BJP leader said.
BJP leader and former MP Kirit Somaiya said on Wednesday: “Around 90 lakh names have been removed (in Bengal). In districts bordering Bangladesh, such as Murshidabad and Malda, the names of nearly 10-12 lakh Bangladeshis have been deleted.”