Amit Shah on Saturday claimed the BJP would secure a vote share above 50 per cent and come to power in Bengal with an overwhelming majority, but did not set any specific seat targets unlike 2021 and 2024.
The Union home minister said that 2026 was a year to say goodbye to the Trinamool Congress. “Mamata Didi, now we have to make a jump to reach 45 per cent votes from our existing 38 per cent. This time, you’ll see the BJP getting over 50 per cent votes and coming to power with a thumping majority,” Shah said, addressing a party workers’ meeting in Barrackpore, North 24-Parganas.
“The entire administration in Bengal has collapsed. The year 2026 will be the year to say ‘TMC, ta-ta, bye-bye’.”
Trinamool national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee dismissed Shah’s claim as merely a way of motivating BJP workers, and referred to his earlier — and wildly incorrect — seat targets.
Before the 2021 Assembly elections, Shah had claimed the party would win over 200 of the 294 seats. It ended up with 77.
Ahead of the 2024 general election, he had told a rally in Suri, Birbhum, that the BJP would win 35 of Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats. Its actual tally was 12.
Multiple sources said the party’s failure to meet even half the seat targets set by Shah had demoralised grassroots workers. Some within the BJP believe that this lies behind Shah’s current emphasis on vote share instead of seats.
“It’s better that Amit Shahji spoke about the vote share instead of setting a target in terms of seats,” a senior BJP leader said.
“Although he said the party would get more than 50 per cent of the votes, even 45-46 per cent will be enough to win more than 180 seats. If his prediction of 50 per cent comes true, the BJP will certainly cross 200 seats.”
Shah cited statistics relating to the BJP’s performance in Bengal to boost party workers’ morale.
“In 2014, we won only two Lok Sabha seats. In 2019, our vote share was 41 per cent and we won 18 seats,” he said.
“In 2021, we got 38 per cent votes and Suvendu Adhikari became leader of the Opposition with 77 seats. In 2024, we got 39 per cent of the vote share.”
Shah said that since the 2024 general election, the BJP had won several states, including Haryana, Odisha, Delhi and Bihar, and its next target was Bengal in 2026.
Political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty said the talk of a 50 per cent vote share was “more aspirational than realistic”, and was meant to enthuse party workers.
“Even getting close to 45-46 per cent votes, a realistic figure, will not be easy. If the BJP wants to reach 45 per cent votes, it will have to raise Hindu consolidation to over 65 per cent from the existing 55 per cent,” he said.
“However, the BJP could win the election with a 42-43 per cent vote share if Trinamool’s minority vote bank splits because of the activities of different parties, including that of Humayun Kabir.”
During his half-hour speeches in Barrackpore and Siliguri, Shah also accused Mamata’s “nephew” of facilitating illegal immigration.