Suvendu Adhikari, the leader of the Opposition, on Friday said that the BJP would secure 220 seats in 2026 if Hindu consolidation was optimal, as witnessed in Malda and Nandigram in the recent elections.
The statement comes after Union home minister Amit Shah, during his recent trip to the city, avoided putting a number to his prediction but claimed that the BJP would secure a two-thirds majority in the Assembly elections.
“There are two places where Hindu consolidation was highest — Malda Uttar and Nandigram. In Malda Uttar, 85 per cent of Hindu voters voted for the BJP in 2024. If the entire Bengal follows the Malda Uttar trend, then the BJP will come to power with 220 seats, not 200,” Adhikari said while addressing a rally in Malda’s Chanchal on Friday.
“In 2021, 65 per cent of Hindus voted for the BJP in Nandigram, and I won the election by nearly 2,000 votes. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured 72 per cent of Hindu votes.....,” he added.
Shah's prediction of the BJP coming to power with a two-thirds majority translates to 196 seats out of Bengal’s 294 Assembly constituencies.
However, during a meeting with BJP workers and leaders of four Lok Sabha constituencies, including Calcutta and its outskirts at Science City auditorium, Shah said if the party could win 77 seats in the 2021 Assembly polls compared to just three in 2016, there was no reason why it could not win 200 seats in the 2026 Assembly elections.
“So, Shah claimed that the BJP would come to power with around 200 seats, just as he had stated ahead of the 2021 elections. However, he did not raise the slogan ‘Is baar, 200 paar’ this time. Adhikari, on the other hand, has predicted 20 more seats, which is interesting,” a source said.
Adhikari had told BJP workers that if Trinamool could secure 99 votes out of 100 Muslim votes, then they could also ensure that the BJP got 99 out of 100 Hindu votes.
Political experts said that mathematically, Adhikari’s assessment could be correct if optimal Hindu consolidation took place.
“However, contrary to Suvendu Adhikari's 85 per cent consolidation claim, around 65 per cent of Hindus voted for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in the Malda Uttar constituency. Even if 65 per cent Hindu voters consolidate across Bengal, Adhikari’s prediction is mathematically valid,” said political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty.
He, however, argued that practically, the mathematics behind the prediction did not match ground reality, as only around 55 per cent of Hindus across Bengal voted for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while it was 54 per cent in the 2021 Assembly elections.
“There is nothing significant so far to suggest such a sharp increase in Hindu consolidation. In the latest by-election in Nadia’s Kaliganj, the level of Hindu consolidation not only remained unchanged but arguably declined slightly,” he added, questioning how the BJP lost seats in West Midnapore, Bankura, and Jhargram, where Muslim voter influence is negligible.
A BJP leader, however, claimed that the turmoil in Bangladesh, particularly the oppression of Hindus, had consolidated the Hindu vote bank in Bengal.
Trinamool Congress spokesperson Arup Chakraborty said whenever Adhikari and Shah predicted a number, it would eventually become Trinamool's tally.
“When it comes to seat prediction, we treat Suvendu Adhikari and Amit Shah as our lucky zodiac signs. In 2021, they predicted 200 seats for themselves; Trinamool won 215 seats. In 2024, they predicted 35 out of 42 seats, but ended up with just 12,” Chakraborty said.
The Nandigram MLA, however, remained confident during his over half an hour speech in Chanchal, claiming Trinamool would sit in the Opposition benches after the Assembly election results.
He said that as the leader of the Opposition, he had to organise rallies 104 times following orders from the court and claimed that the BJP would settle the score with Trinamool once the party came to power in 2026.
“In 2026, Trinamool will be the Opposition party in Bengal. Then we will settle scores with them,” Adhikari said, adding that if the BJP comes to power, 200 days of work would be provided annually under the job guarantee scheme — 100 days from the Centre and another 100 days from the BJP-led state government.
He also claimed that the people of Malda resent Trinamool, which is why the party failed to secure a lead in any of the 12 Assembly segments during the 2024 general elections. However, a TMC leader pointed out that in 2021, Mamata Banerjee’s party won eight of the 12 seats in the district.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Malda in the middle of this month, while Mamata Banerjee is also expected to visit the district before him.
Mithun call
Actor-turned-politician Mithun Chakraborty on Friday called upon the Hindu community to unite to remove Trinamool from power in Bengal.
Addressing a public rally on the Old Post Office Para ground in Cooch Behar town, Chakraborty, a BJP leader, said: “We must save Bengal’s Hindus, protect ‘Sanatan Dharma,’ safeguard Hindutva, and preserve Bengali identity.”
The BJP leader also took a dig at the state government’s “Lakshmir Bhandar” scheme, while expressing concerns over unemployment,
“The government collects money from you and then gives it back to you. Those who take this money may be fine, but what about their children, who want to live with dignity and do not want to indulge in corruption? They are sitting jobless. Husbands who refuse to engage in corruption are also unemployed,” he said.
Additional reporting by Main Uddin Chisti in Cooch Behar