The Fifa World Cup presents itself as an economic jackpot for the hosting country but the US is seeing a decline in airline sales and hotel bookings, owing to exorbitant match tickets, and a climate of fear stemming from amplified security.
Hours before the World Cup kickoff, the boost to travel and tourism expected from this year’s biggest sporting event has yet to materialise and industry analysts say excitement has been muted compared with past World Cups.
The traditional World Cup travel playbook - dependent on international fans willing to travel long distances and spend heavily to follow their teams - is faltering in the US.
One explanation for the gap is that football is simply less popular in the US compared to the rest of the world, according to Reuters.
It is "overall a disappointment. There's no other word that I can say," said Vijay Dandapani, CEO of the Hotel Association of New York City. The association has cut its forecast for hotel room revenue tied to the World Cup by 60 per cent to roughly $60 million, he said.
Last minute demand yet to materialise
Flight bookings from Europe into most host cities for June and July are down 3.8 per cent on average year-over-year, according to Cirium, even after Europeans had already pulled back from travel to the US last year.
Bookings from Europe into New York, host of the July 19 final, have plunged 15.8 per cent, Cirium said.
Fifa had projected 1.2 million fans would descend on the city, but Dandapani said the New York hotel association is only expecting half a million.
Dandapani said there has been a small uptick in bookings from UK and Norway fans recently, which he called a "positive sign."
Hotels are hoping for a last-minute surge after the group stage concludes, despite discouraging early data. Average bookings across host cities are up just 0.5 per cent from a year earlier, according to analytics firm CoStar.
Several New York hotels are discounting hotel rooms, said Dandapani, including the New York Hilton Midtown, the city's largest hotel, which has slashed rates for the tournament in half to $415 per night, compared to advertised rates in December, he said.
Hilton in April said it was seeing strong bookings, driven by New York. The following month, Marriott said "there obviously is still a lot left to book given that the exact matchups for the latter half of the competition have not yet been decided."
Hilton declined comment while Marriott did not immediately respond to a comment request.
"Some fans are skipping the World Cup altogether," said Andy Milne, England superfan and author of the book That World Cup Guy. "Friends of mine are heading to Ibiza to watch every match on TV for a fraction of the price. Others are going to Vegas. It'll still cost money, but far less than tickets, travel, hotels and transport to the stadiums."
High ticket costs, visas deter visitors
Fans from more than half the qualified countries need visas to enter the United States, adding cost and uncertainty for travelers already wary of stricter border enforcement.
The Trump administration denied a Somali referee entry over alleged links to "suspected members of terror organisations." Fifa’s ticketing practices have also soured some fans. Organisers introduced record-high base prices and for the first time, dynamic pricing that raised costs as the tournament neared.
Fifa’s decision to allow uncapped resale pricing inflated costs further and drew regulatory scrutiny. The cheapest ticket in host cities like New York and Miami now approaches $1,000, according to TicketData.
Even if ticket prices halve closer to key matches, last-minute demand may remain muted, as overseas fans still face the cost and complexity of booking travel and securing visas on short notice, said Dana Lattouf, CEO of Tickitto, a UK ticket distributor.
Vacation rentals, which allow groups to split costs, are a rare bright spot. Airbnb told investors in May that the World Cup was on track to be its largest event ever. Data from short-term rental analytics firm AirDNA shows bookings, particularly for budget and economy rentals, are tracking higher in host cities including in Boston and Los Angeles.
Booked average daily rates for rentals across host cities were $218, while travelers looking now would pay about $335 as of June 8, AirDNA said, as hosts raise prices to capture last-minute demand.
“There is way more leisure demand in all these cities because of the World Cup. That is unmistakable,” said Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA.
The muted demand marks a sharp departure from the economic windfalls that recent World Cups delivered to host nations.
After the 2018 tournament, Russia estimated that the event had contributed more than 850 billion roubles ($13.5 billion) to its economy — roughly one per cent of GDP — while attracting about 2.9 million foreign visitors.
Qatar hosted the most expensive World Cup on record in 2022. An International Monetary Fund study estimated that visitor spending and World Cup-related broadcasting revenues contributed up to one per cent of GDP, while the massive infrastructure push undertaken for the tournament helped drive much of the country's non-hydrocarbon growth over the preceding decade.
Brazil's 2014 World Cup generated around 30 billion reais ($13 billion at the time) in economic activity, according to a study commissioned by the tourism ministry.
This year, in what is the largest World Cup in the tournament’s history; Fifa staked an enormous claim on economic returns, projecting as much as $30.5 billion windfall for the three host nations combined.
For the US, whose economy dwarfs most of its rivals, a projected $17 billion boost amounts to less than 0.1 per cent of GDP, rendering the World Cup a marginal growth driver, according to a report by Euro News.