Exclusions
“The continued use of outdated census data has led to the exclusion of at least 10 crore people from food distribution schemes,” says Ashok Kumar Sircar from the Centre for Local Democracy at Azim Premji University in Bangalore. The National Food Security Act, 2013, mandates that approximately 67 per cent of Indians are entitled to subsidised food grains via the public distribution system or PDS. The subsidies are meant for Antyodaya Anna Yojana households and Priority Households identified by states and Union Territories. “Approximately 81.3 crore Indians are covered by these schemes now. But this is based on the population projections of the 2011 Census,” says Sircar.
False claims
You would have heard the BJP say time and again how the number of Muslims in India has multiplied. In 2024, bang in the middle of the general elections, the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) published a study to say the number of Hindus was going down while the number of Muslims was increasing. It would not be credible to make such a claim without a recent census to cite.
The Population Foundation of India put the EAC-PM study down to “misinterpretation” of data, ignoring “broader demographic trends”. The foundation even issued a statement saying, “According to the Census of India, the decadal growth rate for Muslims has been declining over the past three decades.” In the absence of a new census, many policymakers and development economists depend on another distinct data collection exercise of the Government of India, the National Family Health Survey (NFHS).
While the census provides comprehensive demographic information about the entire population, the survey focuses on specific health indicators, such as fertility or population growth rate for a sample of households. The survey is conducted periodically, with various rounds focusing on different themes. Based on data culled from various rounds of surveys between 1992-93 and 2019-20, we now know that the total fertility rate (TFR) or the average number of children born to a woman
in her lifetime has declined from 3.4 to 2.0 between 1992 and 2019. This is across all religions. The fertility rate is 1.88 in Christians, 1.61 in Sikhs, 1.6 in Jains, and 1.39 in Buddhist and Neo-Buddhist communities. In Hindus, it has declined from 3.3 to 1.9, while in Muslims it has declined from 4.4 to 2.4 over the same period.
“The data also reveals that in the same period, the decline in TFR was faster among Muslims compared to Hindus at an all-India level during this period,” says Achin Chakraborty, who is a former director of the Institute of Development Studies (IDSK) in Calcutta. This decline in TFR in Muslims is the highest in Delhi, followed by West Bengal, while among Hindus, it is the highest in Uttar Pradesh. The NFHS also looks at two other key factors known to cause changes in the religious composition of populations — migration and conversions.
According to survey data, neither migrations nor conversions have had any impact on the religious composition of the country. “Several studies have concluded that population growth spurts, in certain pockets of India, irrespective of religion, have been happening due to poverty, lack of education and limited access to healthcare,” says Chakraborty.
Development pause
Poised on decennial census data is the concept of the census town. As per the 2011 census, there are 3,892 such towns across India. Census towns are places classified as urban areas based on population data. Says Sircar, “They are governed by rural local bodies or panchayats until they are converted into a statutory town with a municipality.” It is important to identify them as this exercise has implications for government policy.
“This can lead to better infrastructure and service delivery compared to areas without statutory recognition,” says Sircar. They are also entitled to central assistance as per the guidelines of the Finance Commission. Being recognised as a statutory town also means the local authority has the power to levy taxes, manage finances and plan the town’s development. In West Bengal, there were 780 census towns as per the 2011 Census. Two important census towns that await conversion are New Town and Singur.
What backwardness?
“It’s not possible to gauge backwardness without census data. No sample survey offers an accurate picture,” says Chakraborty. The census does not rank regions or villages by “backwardness”, but it provides data that can be used to analyse backwardness. “For instance, if it’s found that among the working male population of a village at least 70 per cent are landless farm labourers, that particular village will be identified as a backward one,” says Chakraborty.
In 2004, the West Bengal government identified 4,612 villages as “backward” based on the 2001 Census data, with a focus on female literacy rates below 30 per cent. More than 60 per cent of the population in these villages comprised marginal workers or the unemployed.
“Educated women are more likely to have access to healthcare information, make informed decisions about their health, family planning and their children’s health, and have better health outcomes,” says Sabir Ahamed, who is the national coordinator of the Pratichi Trust that conducts research in education, health and gender equity.
According to Ahamed, educated women are also more likely to participate in the workforce, contribute to the economy and earn higher incomes, which can lift families and communities out of poverty. Being able to measure backwardness is crucial to determine eligibility for action programmes and targeted development initiatives.
Power imbalance
The number of seats in the Lok Sabha was fixed at 543 based on the 1971 Census and its headcount of 54.8 crore. Delimitation in the Indian Constitution (Articles 82 and 70) refers to the process of redrawing or readjusting the boundaries of Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha constituencies. The primary objective is to adjust electoral constituencies to reflect population changes and ensure fair representation of people.
As India’s population grew by leaps and bounds — especially, in the northern region — the country redrew boundaries and adjusted the number of seats in both houses thrice; in 1951, 1961 and 1971 based on census data. Since then, there has been a long pause, or “constituency freeze”.
States such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have since witnessed a population explosion, as compared to states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, which have implemented family planning norms better and have registered much better human development indices.
Redrawing boundaries will result in a gain in seats in north India and a loss of seats for the South in the Lok Sabha, essentially punishing the South politically for performing better socio-economically. “Decreased representation will mean reduced finance allocation and shift of power dynamics,” says Chakraborty.
On the other hand, keeping the representation fixed will result in an electoral imbalance that continues to disrupt the functioning of democracy.