India is 41 per cent rain deficient as the southwest monsoon has stalled over Maharashtra, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. The agency has predicted that the country will receive 90 per cent of its long period average rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year and experts say it is linked to the El Niño.
El Niño is one of the three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a climate phenomenon characterised by changes in sea temperatures along the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by fluctuations in the atmosphere.
The IMD on June 12 declared the onset of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It also said these conditions are expected to strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season.
What does that mean for India, a country largely dependent on agriculture?
“At 89 per cent, the country would have been under drought conditions, so we are very much on the cusp of a drought this season,” agricultural economist Ashok Gulati told The Telegraph Online.
India repeatedly claims to have stockpiles of wheat and rice, meaning that there is unlikely to be a famine, even if paddy, the most water intensive major food crop, is compromised this year.
This week, Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman reassured that India has maintained enough buffer stocks to bear the brunt of El Nino-induced “not so good monsoon this year.”
As of June, the government reported reserves of 53.41 million metric tonnes,nearly double of the mandatory target. That means a famine is unlikely.
That isn’t the whole story, though.
“If agricultural GDP drops even 1 per cent, it would lead to a sharp fall in farmers’ incomes,” Gulati said. “Food inflation at Consumer Food Price Index stands at about 4.8 per cent, this will increase to 5 or even 6 per cent by October or November, when India will have peak demand for the festive season.”
That the El Niño will be particularly harsh this year is now universally accepted, said Avik Saha, national convener for Jai Kisan Andolan, who was instrumental in the Swaraj Abhiyan vs Union of India landmark judgment in 2016 that forced the government to enforce strict drought management protocols and protect vulnerable populations.
“Earlier, there was a denial of drought,” Saha told The Telegraph Online. The years 2014 to 2016 were drought years but there was considerably less reaction from the state, he said.
“Long range projection and mapping is needed,” he said. “Agriculture is one side of the picture, droughts have cascading effects in disrupting all of rural life.”
Senior IMD scientist Sivananda Pai agreed that the El Niño conditions this year are expected to be strong.
"During June to September monsoon will be below normal except for some places in the northeast. For the northeast there will be more rainfall," he told The Telegraph Online.
"El Niño typically develops during the spring months of March and April, strengthens towards the end of the year, and reaches its peak during winter, from December to February, before gradually weakening," he explained.
Sometimes the El Niño is stronger, sometimes weaker, said Partha Mukhopadhyay, former professor at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology. “This time it has developed in June, which could have significant repercussions,” he told The Telegraph Online.
Pai indicated that the summers of 2026 and 2027 could potentially be among the warmest on record.
"In 2027 the summer temperatures will increase more than this year's temperature. Maybe 2026 and 2027 will be the warmest ever season. The temperature can rise to 50° [Celsius]," Pai said.
Mukhopadhyay expressed concern over India's approach to water conservation.
“We are poor at harvesting water. Many states are facing water cuts including cities such as Pune and Mumbai. Even after repeated experiences, we fail to develop proper strategies to safeguard our water resources. We have taken water for granted,” he remarked.
“As individuals and communities, we must adopt proactive measures to save and reuse water. These steps can make a significant difference in managing the impacts of climate variability,” he said.
The farmers’ dilemma
Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Wednesday said the El Niño could “severely damage” the kharif crops in 10 to 12 states and suggested weekly district-level meetings and interventions.
How quickly can farmers adapt to government advisories to substitute water-intensive cultivation to less rain-fed crops?
“Farmers need to decide immediately,” Gulati said. “Advisories are sent out but typically that has less impact on farmers. One who has tilled paddy fields his whole life will likely do the same this year, hoping for the best outcome.”
Saha said that it was virtually impossible for farmers to shift cultivation on short notice.
El Niño will disrupt commodities like pulses, oil seeds, cotton, millets, fruits and vegetables, experts have said. The impact is global, hitting other countries such as Bangladesh and Indonesia just as hard.
Siraj Hussain, who was secretary in the agriculture ministry from 2014 to 2016, when India suffered its most recent, serious drought, is hopeful that the situation may be better this year because a decade ago, the irrigated area was about 45 per cent of cross crop area; now it is about 55 per cent.
Hussaid said that since the last drought, farmers have developed a higher variety of climate resistant crops, and with the help of AI, state governments and farmers are better able to draft and share advisories.
“Kerala is only about 10 per cent short of its expected rainfall in June, but other states like Goa and Karnataka may be seriously affected by rain deficiency. Farmers should be guided so that they do not have to sow a crop twice. Go for pulses, ragi, moong, arhar, inter-cropping etc, and conserve whatever rain comes your way,” he told The Telegraph Online.
K.J. Ramesh, former director-general of meteorology at the IMD, stressed that the El Niño was not the sole factor influencing the monsoon.
“Several other climatic factors also play an important role. In the latter part of the monsoon season, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to develop and that will help the monsoon,” he told The Telegraph Online.
Asked which regions were most likely to be affected by the El Niño, he named Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and North Karnataka.