A United Nations report released on Tuesday found that India was the global topper in the rise of absolute volume of greenhouse gas emissions during 2023-24.
On a percentage scale, India’s increase was only second to Indonesia during this period.
The findings, along with India’s failure to submit its carbon mission plan by the September 30 deadline, are expected to put the country under the scanner at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, said environmental experts. The Belem summit will commence on November 10.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report has found that the world is on course for a 2.8°C rise above the pre-industrial-era value, a period after which human-induced carbon emissions began to dominate.
The projected rise, towards the end of the century, is almost double compared to the 1.5°C global temperature rise target agreed at the Paris climate summit a decade ago, and can put a large part of the world and its population under an existential crisis.
The report has found China to be the biggest emitter globally, followed by the US. India, with an addition of 165 million tonnes of greenhouse gases during 2023-24, had witnessed the steepest rise in emissions during this period, followed by China and Russia. India’s per capita emission, however, remains the lowest among the major economies, though on an upward curve.
The report also found that the emission trajectory, despite repeated clarion calls from scientists and environmental experts, is rising in all major G20 economies except the European Union.
Overall, the G20 countries recorded a 22-million-tonne emission rise during 2023-24. The report titled “Off Target” is being prepared with the help of around 40 scientists from 21 major scientific institutes across the world.
“Global temperatures are now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C based on full implementation of NDCs…. (However), current policies in place put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming…,” reads the report that has also pointed out that the Donald Trump-driven proposed US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel out part of the progress initially estimated.
“The global multi-decadal temperature average will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, due to lack of action and ambition from world leaders. Countries must take rapid and immediate action to keep overshoot (within limit)… giving us the best chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100,” the report says.
The global political commitment at this critical juncture, however, hardly looks encouraging as only a third of countries linked to the Paris Agreement, covering 63 per cent of emissions, submitted new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) within the September 30 deadline.
NDCs are climate action plans submitted by countries as per the commitment to the Paris Agreement for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change. These plans are updated every five years.
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target. While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, while releasing the report.
Indian experts point towards the contradiction in India’s climate policy, referring to the report.
“The report confirms that India is caught in a climate justice trap. While the country’s low per-capita emissions are a moral high ground, its rising total emissions, lack of proper reporting, and non-submission of an NDC 3.0 put the country in a tight spot,” said Harjeet Singh, a global climate activist and the founding director of Satat Sampada Climate Foundation.
“UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report is a wake-up call for India. While global projections show marginal improvement, the world remains far from Paris targets — and India, as a growing economy and major emitter, must urgently scale up ambition,” observed Anjal Prakash, a professor with the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, and one of the authors of UN climate reports.