India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday formally announced that India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, with seasonal rains projected at 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), raising concerns over agriculture, inflation and economic growth amid the ongoing impact of the Iran war.
The Southwest monsoon, which delivers nearly 70 per cent of the rainfall needed for agriculture, reservoirs and groundwater replenishment, is expected to be below average for the first time in three years as El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the season.
Announcing the second forecast for the Southwest monsoon on Friday, the IMD said rainfall during the June-September season is likely to remain below normal across large parts of the country, except the Northeast.
Ministry of earth sciences secretary Dr M Ravichandran said, "Quantitatively, the Southwest monsoon season rainfall over the country is likely to be 90% of the long period average... Below normal rainfall is most likely over the country... Southwest monsoon, seasonal rainfall is most likely to be normal over Northeast India - roughly about 94 to 106% of the long-period average, and below normal over Central and South peninsula India, that is about less than 94% of the long-period average. And Northwest India, it is roughly about less than 92% of long-period average. The monsoon core zone, consisting mostly of rainfed agricultural areas in the country, is likely to be below normal - less than 94% of the long-period average..."
The latest estimate is lower than the IMD’s first monsoon forecast issued on April 13, which had projected rainfall at 92 per cent of the long-period average. If realised, this year’s monsoon would be the weakest since 2015, when El Niño conditions reduced rainfall to 87 per cent of the average.
The IMD defines normal rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm during the four-month monsoon season.
The weather office also warned that June rainfall is expected to remain below normal, particularly across several key agricultural regions.
"In the month of June, the average rainfall for the country is most likely to be below normal - less than 92%. Except some parts of Central and Northeast India, the temperature will be maximum, which is more than normal... El Niño may be observed during the month of June. Furthermore, El Niño is expected to persist at a weak to moderate intensity during July and August...," Ravichandran said.
According to the IMD, the Northeast is likely to receive normal rainfall, while Central India, the South Peninsula and Northwest India are expected to record below-normal precipitation.
An El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures rise above normal in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically bringing hot and dry weather across Southeast Asia and weakening India’s monsoon rains. India has historically witnessed deficient rainfall during several El Niño years, at times resulting in drought conditions, crop damage and restrictions on grain exports.
Economists and commodity analysts warned that deficient rainfall during the crucial sowing season could increase pressure on food prices and rural demand.
Prospects of weak rainfall and uneven distribution add to inflation risks and could weigh on economic growth, said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank.
"A deficient monsoon, particularly in the crucial July-August months, can add to the pressure and push up inflation closer to an average of 5.5% if food inflation spikes," Sengupta said.
India’s retail inflation stood at 3.48 per cent in April, driven largely by food prices, though economists say the outlook remains vulnerable to energy price fluctuations linked to tensions in the Middle East.
Analysts said lower rainfall could affect sowing of pulses, cotton, edible oilseeds and coarse grains such as corn, while paddy cultivation in non-irrigated regions of northern and northwestern India could also face risks.
"Below-normal rainfall could affect early-season planting of pulses, cotton, edible oilseeds and coarse grains such as corn," said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India.
Despite adequate government stockpiles of staples such as rice and wheat, weaker monsoon rains could reduce rural incomes in a country where nearly half the farmland lacks irrigation and about half the population depends on agriculture for livelihood.
Lower farm incomes typically dampen rural consumption, impacting demand for products ranging from motorcycles to household appliances.
Meanwhile, IMD Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the Southwest monsoon is expected to advance over parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during the next seven days.