India is set to see below-average maximum and minimum temperatures in January, the weather office said on Thursday, raising the prospect of higher yields for key winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas.
The country is also likely to experience an above-average number of cold-wave days, particularly across central and eastern India, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department, told an online news conference.
"Over parts of Vidarbha and adjoining Marathwada, as well as parts of Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, we expect one to three additional cold-wave days in January," he said.
Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh states in the north, along with Madhya Pradesh in central India, form the country's top wheat-growing regions.
Winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas are planted from October to December and require cold weather conditions during their growth and maturity stages for optimal yields.
In recent years, maximum and minimum temperatures from January to March have been above normal, adversely affecting yields of winter crops.
This year, however, minimum temperatures across most parts of the country are likely to stay below average, except in some areas of the northwest and northeast, Mohapatra said.
Rainfall in northern and northwestern states is likely to remain below average during January–March, he said.
Mohapatra said declining winter rains in north-west India is due to a trend of a lesser number of Western Disturbances – a storm originating in the Mediterranean sea – influencing the weather in the north west.
“Though 5-7 WDs are formed every month, either they are weak or pass over India quickly without impacting the weather much. The WD-induced rain and snowfall activities are decreasing,” he said.
Farmers have so far planted winter-sown crops on 61.4 million hectares since sowing began on October 1, up 1.1% from a year ago, data from the farm ministry showed.
"Temperatures in wheat and rapeseed-growing states have been conducive to crop growth, and if they remain normal to below normal, we can certainly expect bumper yields this year," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
Even in January, Uttarakhand, Punjab, half of Himachal Pradesh, large tracts of Uttar Pradesh and half of Ladakh will get poor rainfall. But this year fog conditions were more compared to last year.
An analysis of last year’s weather trends showed over 2,700 Indians died due to extreme weather events, of which nearly 48% were killed by lightning, mostly in eastern states. Another 50% were victims of floods and heavy rain.
In Bihar and Odisha, all deaths were by the lightning whereas an overwhelming majority of extreme weather victims in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand were struck by thunderstorms.
Mohapatra said lightning deaths were common in eastern India because of the Nor’wester (Kalboisakhi) but the number of such deaths were not increasing.