The southwest monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from northwest India around September 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The primary rain-bearing system usually makes its onset over Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It starts retreating from northwest India around September 17 and withdraws completely by October 15.
"Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from some parts of west Rajasthan around September 15," the IMD said in a statement.
However, more rains are expected in the country. A new low pressure area has formed in the Bay of Bengal near Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Due to its influence, there is a possibility of heavy rains in both the states. There is a hint of another disaster in Uttarakhand.
Scattered rains are also likely in South Bengal. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely in North Bengal.
This year, the monsoon covered the entire country nine days before the usual date of July 8. This was the earliest the monsoon has covered the entire country since 2020 when it did so by June 26.
It had reached Kerala on May 24, its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it arrived on May 23.
The country has received 836.2 mm of rainfall in the monsoon season so far against a normal of 778.6 mm, a surplus of 7 per cent.
In May, the IMD had forecast that India is likely to receive 106 per cent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June-September monsoon season.
Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of this 50-year average is considered 'normal'.
The monsoon is crucial for India's agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the GDP.
It also plays a key role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation.