A new study by a team of researchers of IIT Kharagpur has warned that extreme weather events are not only becoming more frequent and intense but also affecting people very differently depending on where they live and how old they are.
An IIT Kharagpur spokesperson said on Wednesday that by combining detailed climate projections with demographic data, the study compared the recent past (1991–2020) with the near future (2021–2050) under various warming and population growth scenarios.
The research team, led by Prof Rajib Maity of Civil Engineering department, looked at how heat waves or cold waves can overlap with heavy rain or dry extremes.
Its findings highlight stark insights as heat-related extremes concurrent with floods or droughts are projected to rise sharply worldwide, and Asia and Africa are set to be the hardest hit, with children and working-age adults facing the greatest risk.
The study further flagged that sub-Saharan Africa will experience the highest youth exposure to extremes due to rapid population growth, while in Europe, North America and Australia, it is the elderly who are most vulnerable, especially to heatwaves combined with heavy rainfall.
"Europe, in particular, is expected to see the highest exposure levels for seniors globally, raising urgent concerns for healthcare and social care systems," it observed.
"While cold extremes will decline in tropical regions, they are projected to increase in parts of America, northern Europe and East Asia, creating the dual threat of more frequent heatwaves and persistent cold spells," the researchers predicted.
One of the crucial findings shows that climate change is the primary driver of rising exposure globally, and population growth further magnifies the risks in developing regions, whereas in Europe and parts of Asia, where populations are stable or declining, climate change alone accounts for most of the increase.
"What sets this research apart is its age-specific lens. Unlike most climate studies that treat populations as a single group, this study disaggregates exposure across children, youth, adults, and seniors. This reveals the unequal burden of climate extremes and underscores the need for region-specific and age-specific adaptation strategies," the spokesperson said.
The findings highlight the urgent need for climate adaptation and resource policies that protect vulnerable groups like the young in Sub-Saharan Africa or the elderly in Europe, amid a rapidly changing climate.
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