US President Donald Trump's announcement threatening 100 per cent tariff on movies produced outside and coming to the US will impact the box office business of Indian films and may lead to a dramatic reduction in footfall in theatres in that country, say producers in India.
Though there is little clarity just yet, the fear is that ticket prices for Indian films will go up and therefore impact business, according to a section of industry insiders, including Shibasish Sarkar, president of the Producers Guild of India, filmmaker Vivek Agnihotri and exhibitor-distributor Akshay Rathi.
"It is a little early to comment on this because whatever kind of tariff got announced in the last 30 to 45 days is going through various changes and discussions... But if it gets implemented, the first impact I foresee is on the theatrical business of our films in the US market," Sarkar told PTI.
Indian films gross around USD 100 million (over Rs 800 crore) at the US box office, he said.
"If this tariff is implemented, exhibitors will increase ticket prices and make it expensive for consumers because of which even footfalls will drop dramatically. If the exhibitors want to absorb the price, they will pass on that loss to producers, so their share will also come down drastically. Either way, there will be an impact on the producer’s share from a theatrical point of view," Sarkar explained. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said on Sunday that he has authorised the Department of Commerce and the Office of the US Trade Representative to slap a 100 per cent tariff “on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands”.
Agnihotri, known for films such as "The Kashmir Files" and "The Tashkent Files", agreed with Sarkar and said ticket prices of Indian movies will increase in the US if these tariffs come into effect.
"The diaspora market, which is price sensitive, became a revenue source for Indian films. Movies such as ‘Jawan’ and ‘Baahubali’ did good business outside of India. If ticket prices are doubled (in the US), I don’t think anybody will watch them in theatres, especially when the films will be available on Netflix, Amazon, etc. Films such as ‘RRR’ and ‘The Kashmir Files’ did great numbers in non-diaspora markets," Agnihotri told PTI.
Sarkar added that other than an impact on the theatrical releases of local films in the US, these tariffs will have a bearing on global digital and pay TV deals for Indian producers.
"If US consumers are seeing Indian content and identified cost (price increase) towards that, then it will have an impact. From plain reading, it seems any revenue of Indian content, which is generated in the US, will attract the tariff, so that will have an impact on us." Indian films releasing in the US will face higher taxation so the contribution from the North American box office of Indian films will reduce, said exhibitor-distributor Rathi.
"The way he played the tariff war on various countries, it was different tariffs for different countries. For all you know, it may be a more fluid thing given India’s good relations with the US and vice versa, so it may be a little more favourable for India than other countries," Rathi said.
However, Trump's tariff threat may not influence the movie production as most Indian producers find US an expensive location to shoot. "The primary objective of President Trump is that if US films are getting shot outside the US, then they’re losing the opportunity. Some films do come to India to shoot. That also will be impacted," Sarkar said.
Producer Mukesh Bhatt of Vishesh Films had a slightly different take.
In his view, Trump's new announcement will have little impact on Indian movie shoots and business in the US as the country is just one of the many markets for diaspora audiences.
"There’s a presence of Indians in the UK, the Middle East, Singapore, Australia, and all over the world. If my film doesn’t release in one market (the US), it doesn’t make that much of a difference. It is a ridiculous thing he is doing. He doesn’t even realise he is killing Hollywood. We are talking for a reciprocal time, and this has happened," Bhatt told PTI.
According to the veteran filmmaker, most Indian films are not even shot in the US because it's an expensive affair.
"Hindi films are usually shot in the UK because they give us a subsidy, and in other places around the world," he added.
Another major Indian producer, who didn't wish to be named, echoed Bhatt.
"Our films are not shot in the US. Indian films are usually shot in the UK, Mauritius or Malaysia, and other countries. Wherever we get a subsidy, we go and shoot there," he said.
According to director Shekhar Kapur, Trump's move could backfire and instead push Hollywood filmmakers to leave the country.
Kapur, known for films such as "Mr India", the "Elizabeth" franchise starring Cate Blanchett and "What's Love Got to Do with It?", said over "75% of box office" of Hollywood films comes from outside the US.
"And significant part of the budget of those films are spent outside the US. President Trump’s imposition of 100% tarif on all films imported into the US may encourage Hollywood to move outside the US! Quite the opposite of what he intended. #Hollywood #tarrif #DonaldTrump #tarrifonfilm (sic)" the director wrote on X.
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