The government has started down the road to reopening the economy, giving the green light to various industries and trades to go back to work. But there’s also the risk that the move, right now, could break the back of the lockdown and make it impossible to control who steps out onto the street and who doesn’t.
The government has announced a range of relaxations from April 20, allowing everyone from IT and agricultural workers to truckers, carpenters, plumbers, fish and meat shops and workers in establishments outside municipal limits to get back to work -- provided they’re not in coronavirus hotspots.
To be sure, the government needed to loosen the bonds of what’s been one of the strictest Covid-19 lockdowns in the world. The economy’s perilously close to going into meltdown and something had to give. Also, the rabi harvesting season has begun and farm workers and machinery and trucks to transport the crops to the mandis needed to be given permission to move freely.
“Restarting this massive economy is no trivial task. Beginning with select industries, the rural economy and the labour-intensive service sector are steps in the right direction,” said a Mumbai-based consultant.
It was known even before Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his 10am TV broadcast on Tuesday that the Central Government was keen to lift the pause button on India’s economy even if many states were reluctant to ease up too much just yet, fearing it could undo the good work of the lockdown and result in an upsurge of coronavirus cases.
Kerala, which has been way out in front in controlling Covid-19, though already had a lockdown exit plan which it released April 7. That plan called for a “gradual, phased and calibrated” strategy “to ensure the caseload is always kept below the capacity of the healthcare system to deal with it.” Crucially, the blueprint notes that “as different Indian states are expected to pass through the peak infection at different timings, it will be useful and important to establish a national coordination mechanism so states could support one another with experience, expertise, equipment and finances.” It’s a recommendation the central government would be wise to take on board.
To ensure the farmers could harvest their crops and also sow for the next season, the government’s allowed operation of a range of back-up services ranging from companies that hire out farm machinery and others that service such equipment and keep spare parts. Equally importantly, farm mandis, distributors and retailers of fertilisers, pesticides and seeds that are absolutely essential for agricultural operations have been given the nod to open up.
Also to get India moving, at least in a limited way, truckers have been allowed to get back onto the roads without being stopped at state borders or by police blockades. Today’s home ministry order states unequivocally: “All goods traffic will be allowed to ply.”
At a different level, the lockdown has been a mixed experience for India’s IT industry. On one hand, many companies discovered it was easy to rig up systems that allowed most work to be done at home. But others, like companies that dealt with insurance claims, discovered their staff couldn’t take work home because it would have broken strict privacy clauses that bound their clients. Now, the IT companies have been allowed to have 50 per cent of their staff back in office.
E-commerce companies, too, have been allowed to get back into action and their riders wWill be allowed to ply with necessary permissions.” That will be crucial especially because stores and malls will stay closed until May 3 and even after that may have far fewer customers than before. “This is a welcome decision and the first step of returning to the ‘new normal’. In this time of crisis, e-commerce companies have proved themselves to be an ‘essential service’ rather than the popular perception of ‘luxury’, says Ankur Pahwa, partner and national leader, e-commerce and consumer Internet, EY India.
The government’s also allowed industries outside municipal limits of cities and towns to get back to work while industrial establishments that can control access and avoid overcrowding in special export zones have been allowed to open up again. Ports piled high with packed containers that need to be unloaded can restart operations. Construction will also be allowed to restart, permitting hard-hit workers who’ve been forced to remain idle on sites to start earning again.
But new workers can’t be hired for construction sites. And tough new rules that ensure social distancing will have to be followed. The notification says: “The transportation of workers to the workplace shall be arranged by the employers in dedicated transport by ensuring social distancing.” “The main practical issue is going to be transport of workers to and from these establishments because public transport is shut,” noted a Mumbai corporate lawyer.
The government has also figured out that it’s easy to classify something like pharmaceuticals as an essential service but it’s equally important to have ancillary industries like packaging back in action. So for the trucking industry it’s specified that “two drivers and one helper” will be allowed in every vehicle and that, “an empty truck/vehicle will be allowed to ply after the delivery of goods.” Even more importantly, it’s laid out that petrol pumps will be open and that “shops for truck repairs and dhabas on highways,” should be allowed to operate.
The obvious difficulty with getting parts of the country back to work is how will non-authorised workers and indeed the general public be recognised and prevented from returning to the streets and flouting the lockdown rules?
Reopening of the economy, even in a phased manner, is fraught with Covid-19 transmission perils. A report by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency states bluntly that a phased reopening approach “will entail a significant risk of resurgence of the virus.”
But in the end, it is down to us: Are Indians disciplined enough to follow the social distancing and lockdown rules? There are signs they’ve been badly jolted by this pandemic and realise that the lockdown may be everyone’s best hope, given the potentially deadly nature of virus and India’s severely strained healthcare system. In that case, we may have a chance of pulling it off.