Prime Minister Narendra Modi has had a great run in power so far, being elected for three times in a row. But as the rains arrive, engulfing the country ahead of schedule, it’s also pouring woes for the government in Delhi. Here are five reasons why:
1. Sour aftertaste of military adventure
The optics were high and so was the nation’s fervour in Operation Sindoor, India’s foray into Pakistan occupied Kashmir and inside Pakistan territory to smash camps grooming terrorists. But details of what happened in the four-day conflict in May still remain sketchy.
The government did not give any account of the losses, neither to the people nor the Parliament. It was Chief of Defence Staff Anil Chauhan who on foreign soil first admitted to “initial losses”. Then came the “jets lost” admission.
That Operation Sindoor did not convince the world was amply evident when the government cobbled up teams of Opposition leaders to spread India’s message across the globe.
To add the proverbial insult to injury, latest report say the terror infrastructure hit by India may be being rebuilt.
2. Pakistan rehabilitated.
While the guns were still blazing between the warring neighbours, Pakistan secured a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it’s 24th since 1958. With a mere 2.6 per cent voting share in the 25-members IMF board, which prefers consensus over voting, India had no choice but to abstain, fuming.
For the month of July Pakistan gets the presidency of the UN Security Council as a non-permanent member. It has been selected to chair the Taliban Sanctions Committee of the UNSC and vice-chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee of the 15-nation UN body.
Pakistan even secured a deal with India’s long-term ally Russia to revive a defunct Soviet era steel plant. And now Pakistan’s long-standing friend China is mulling a new regional bloc to replace the defunct, India-backed Saarc (South Asian Association for Regional Coopreation). This was discussed in a meeting held in China’s Kunming, also attended by India’s former friend Bangladesh.
Suddenly, Pakistan has gone from a collapsing state to a global player.
3. The beatification of a Pakistan general.
For years, General Asim Munir worked in the shadows. As the head of Pakistan’s intelligence wing, ISI, and later on when he became the army chief.
Post the India-Pakistan military conflict, General Munir stands tall as Pakistan’s Field Marshall, has had lunch with US President Donald Trump at the White House. Not in 24 years since General Pervez Musharraf met then US President George Bush in 2001 has a Pakistani military chief been to the White House – but then Musharraf was President by then. As Pakistan begins to play a larger role in the global stage, so does Munir.
Can’t be good news for any government in Delhi.
4. Shanghai showdown
Used to doing kadi-neenda, Rajnath Singh refused to sign the draft statement at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) defence ministers’ meet in China last week.
The statement made no mention of the dastardly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, though it did talk about the Balochistan train attack this March.
5. India’s industrial output growth slows to nine-month low
Little over a month ago, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam had announced India’s surpassing Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world. He had said that even before the next general elections, India would overtake Germany.
On Monday, India’s industrial output decelerated to a nine-month low, to 1.2 per cent.
Contractions in the mining and power sectors are believed to be the reasons behind the slump. The FMCG and small-scale industries could be adversely impacted if the low industrial output weakens rural consumption. Add this to the decline in production of consumer goods, which indicates lower demand.
Talk to industrialists in private, they will tell you all is not well with the economy.