Moderate to strong El Niño conditions are expected to prevail and further intensify during India’s June–September southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, raising concerns over rainfall distribution and agricultural output in the country.
According to the IMD, El Niño conditions are currently present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the monsoon months as ocean-atmosphere interactions continue to evolve.
"The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Nino conditions, it said.
"Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a further strengthening of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season," the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The agency also noted that neutral conditions in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a key climate system influencing regional rainfall patterns, are likely to persist through the end of the monsoon season.
El Niño events, which are periodic warming phases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, have historically been linked to weaker monsoon performance in India. Such conditions were last observed in 2023, while previous episodes occurred in 2002, 2009, and 2015.