The serial defections from multiple Opposition parties have fuelled confidence among the government’s leaders about having the coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority by the time the monsoon session starts next month.
“By the monsoon session, we are confident of securing the numbers needed to pass the constitutional amendment bill (helping tie the implementation of women’s reservation in the legislatures to a delimitation of constituencies),” a Union minister said.
A second constitutional amendment bill is in the offing, too. The BJP is keen to enact a law for simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls countrywide — which will require constitutional changes, and therefore a two-thirds majority in Parliament — well before the 2029 general election.
The NDA, which needs 360 votes to reach a two-thirds majority in a Lok Sabha with an effective strength of 540, currently has 293 members. The expected addition of 20 of Trinamool’s 28 MPs and 6 of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s 9 members would lift the figure to 319, still far short of the target.
However, BJP managers have been expressing confidence in private that several other Opposition parties, such as the Samajwadi Party with its 37 Lok Sabha MPs, are set to feel the sting of rebellion next.
“Expect earthquakes in several Opposition parties that will hollow them out over the next few weeks,” a BJP source said.
In the 245-strong Rajya Sabha, the NDA is within sniffing distance of the two-thirds mark of 164. Its current tally is 152, bolstered by the April 24 defections by 7 of the Aam Aadmi Party’s 10 Upper House members and the victories in the June 18 elections.
In addition, the vacancies created by the resignations of three Trinamool members are likely to be filled by the BJP, given its commanding position in the Bengal Assembly — thanks partly to defections by 58 of Trinamool’s 80 MLAs.
Even BJP insiders confess themselves surprised at the pace and scale of the political realignments: the AAP rebellion of April 24 followed by the May-June revolts in Trinamool and Uddhav Thackeray’s party.
Asked why it’s so crucial for the party to ensure delimitation and a one-nation-one-election system, some of them speculated it might partially represent a bid for electoral insurance for a post-Narendra Modi BJP.
A BJP source underlined that the party would have to find a successor sooner or later for Modi, who will be almost 79 during the next general election. Since the successor would be unlikely to have Modi’s mass appeal, the BJP needs the delimitation as insurance, he said.
Many in the Opposition believe that a redrawing of constituencies can hand the BJP a lasting structural advantage. They point to how the 2023 delimitation in Assam reshaped constituency boundaries in the state’s eastern and central districts to redistribute the populations of Bengali-origin Muslims and reduce the number of Muslim-majority seats. They fear that the countrywide delimitation that the BJP wants before 2029 will follow the “Assam Model”.
“In Assam, the government carved up the constituencies of Opposition leaders and redrew boundaries arbitrarily for political gain. The same is now being prepared across the country,” Congress MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had told the Lok Sabha during the debate on the constitutional amendment bill on delimitation that a united Opposition later defeated.
The government denies the allegation, arguing a fresh delimitation has become unavoidable since parliamentary and Assembly constituencies have remained frozen on the basis of the 1971 census despite a dramatic population growth.
As for one-nation-one-election, the BJP believes that simultaneous polls would help it fight state elections on national issues — such as security, threats to sovereignty and national pride — giving it an advantage.
Apart from anything else, breaking up Opposition parties and passing landmark legislations to reshape the country’s political landscape would be just the sort of achievements Modi would want to base his legacy on, a BJP veteran said.
“Narendra Modi wants to be remembered as a Prime Minister who carried out changes considered impossible since Independence. Who knows what kind of transformation he has envisioned for what could be his final term?” he wondered.
Uddhav quit offer
Amid a rebellion by six Lok Sabha MPs of his party, an emotional Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray on Friday said he had not lost his resolve to fight despite challenges and attacks, but was ready to quit his post if the party didn’t have faith in him.
In his first comments on the impending split in his party for the second time in four years, Uddhav said: “I would be happy if someone from the party ranks becomes the next Shiv Sena president, but I will not let it pass onto the hands of thieves.”