Scientists have generated the first comprehensive estimates of the maximum daily visitor capacity for Uttarakhand’s Char Dham sites, suggesting that current pilgrimage footfalls may already have exceeded sustainable limits in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem.
Their study, designed to estimate the carrying capacity of pilgrims along the Char Dham route, calculated daily visitor limits of about 15,800 for Badrinath, 13,200 for Kedarnath, 8,200 for Gangotri and 6,200 for Yamunotri.
The Uttarakhand tourism department estimates that around four million pilgrims travelled the Char Dham route in 2022, with projections of six million in 2025. As the sites are open from April to November, four million annual visitors translate to more than 16,600 daily, with numbers rising further during peak periods.
The new results emerge amid concerns that surging tourist counts and expanding infrastructure are straining the glacier-fed mountain slopes and valleys along the route against the backdrop of frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change.
Uttarakhand experienced at least three flash floods in 2025 alone — at Dharali on August 5, Tharali on August 23, and Sahastradhara and Tapkeshwar Mahadev in Dehradun on September 15.
The Char Dham circuit has a range of temples — 6 at Badrinath, 10 at Kedarnath, 3 at Gangotri and 1 at Yamunotri — alongside natural sites such as lakes, riversides and alpine meadows that draw pilgrims and tourists alike.
A central government project to widen 889km of the Char Dham route, launched in 2016, has intensified concerns with some experts arguing that its construction methods have heightened landslide risks along some segments of the route.
A technical expert panel appointed by the Supreme Court to review the project had cautioned in 2020 that Badrinath might already have reached its carrying capacity and the other three sites could do so by mid-decade.
The tourism department data showed fewer visitors daily in 2019 — 6,000 at Badrinath, 4,800 at Kedarnath, 2,500 at Gangotri and 2,200 at Yamunotri.
In the new study, Jagdish Chandra Kuniyal, professor and head of forest resource management at the VCSG Uttarakhand University of Horticulture and Forestry, and his colleagues combined spatial, environmental and socio-economic data to calculate the carrying capacities for sustainable pilgrim footfalls at each site.
The Char Dham areas are facing significant challenges associated with rising temperatures, rapidly retreating glaciers and extreme weather events such as cloudbursts that endanger landscapes and human settlements, the scientists said in their study published in the journal Scientific Reports.
“Estimates of daily carrying capacity are critical for tourism planning,” said Kuniyal. When daily visitors exceed the limits, they impose strain on the local ecosystem as well as create discomfort for the visitors themselves.
Kuniyal and his colleagues, who are from the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment in Almora, estimated how many visitors each Char Dham site could physically hold per day, then adjusted those figures using maps and correction factors for terrain, access and the ecosystem.
The researchers have called for what they describe as “decentralisation” of visitor flows to nearby “satellite locations” aimed at ensuring the ecological security of the terrain and economic security of local communities.
Their study has delineated such satellite areas — based on vegetation cover, slope and elevation — that could be developed as future sites for tourists.
“Given the growing risks of cloudbursts and flash floods, it is critical that future tourism-linked infrastructure is not built within 100 metres on either side of river channels,” Kuniyal said.
Mallika Bhanot, a volunteer with Ganga Avahan, a citizens’ forum in Uttarkashi campaigning to protect the Himalayan ecosystem, said the study appeared intended to guide policies to increase tourism along the Char Dham route.
“Arrangements for more people to visit Char Dham are going to exponentially increase the risk of loss of lives in disasters like the ones we saw this year,” Bhanot said.