On the floodplains of Raghopur, across the Ganga from Patna, 60-year-old farmer Harilal Rai remains unwavering in his loyalty to Lalu Prasad.
“Yadavs who don’t vote for Laluji’s RJD will land up in hell,” he declares from a ramshackle food stall on the outskirts of Rustampur village. “Laluji gave us pride and courage. He taught people like us to raise our voice.”
Raghopur, nestled in Vaishali district, is not just any constituency — it is the family bastion of Bihar’s most formidable political dynasty.
After Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi, their son and political heir Tejashwi Yadav now represents the seat. At 35, the RJD leader is seeking re-election as the prospective chief minister from the Mahagathbandhan alliance.
For the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Tejashwi’s victory from Raghopur is almost a given. The real battle, party insiders say, lies beyond this Yadav stronghold — in the constituencies across the Ganga, where the traditional arithmetic of the so-called “MY” (Muslim-Yadav) votes may no longer guarantee success.
Mahadalit woman Basanti Devi (wearing sari) in Gahauna village of Buxar, who will vote for Nitish Kumar because of Rs 10k dole. Picture by J.P. Yadav
Broadening the party’s appeal among the other backward communities has, therefore, become central to the RJD’s strategy.
Over the past few years, Tejashwi has stepped out of his father’s shadow to emerge as a leader in his own right. Yet, his most pressing challenge remains moving beyond the traditional MY base — the bedrock of RJD politics for three decades.
The party continues to grapple with the baggage of the Lalu-Rabri years, between 1990 and 2005, when perceptions of Yadav dominance alienated several lower-rung backward groups.
“Bahut gundagardi karta hai (There’s too much hooliganism from them),” says Jitan Kahar, a Raghopur resident. “Our problem is not with Lalu or Tejashwi, but with their people.”
To override the caste divides, Tejashwi has built his campaign around an ambitious promise — a law guaranteeing at least one government job per family.
With Bihar boasting roughly 2.5 crore families, the pledge has evoked both hope and scepticism. “It sounds like reaching for the moon,” remarks young Nitesh Paswan, echoing the prevailing public mood.
Tejashwi insists that the promise is achievable and isn’t mere “jumlebaazi” (empty rhetoric).
“Give me just one chance,” he appeals at rallies. “In 20 months, I will do what the NDA couldn’t in 20 years.”
To counter the past RJD governments’ notoriety for patronising criminals, he has been trying to project himself as a “new leader for a new Bihar”, and promising zero tolerance for crime and corruption.
His call for “badlaav” (change) has struck a chord among the Mahadalit youths in Gahauna village of Buxar district, many of whom are migrant workers in distant states and have returned home for the Chhath festival, the November harvest season and the election.
“Sarkar badalna chahiye (There should be a change of government),” says Shravan Ram. “Good roads and cash handouts are not enough — we need factories here.”
But the sentiment isn’t uniform. Nearby, Basanti Devi, a woman in her 50s, voices her support for the government.
“I shall vote for this government, it gave me ₹10,000 and there is peace under its rule,” she says.
Her words reflect the quiet influence of the government’s one-time cash dole scheme, under which over 1 crore women associated with self-help groups received ₹10,000 each a couple of months ago.
While generally confident of an easy win for Tejashwi from Raghopur, RJD leaders are wary of surprises. Fifteen years ago, in 2010, the family’s grip over the constituency was loosened when Rabri Devi lost to the BJP’s Satish Kumar Yadav.
Since then, Tejashwi has won in 2015 and 2020, both times defeating Satish, who is in the fray this time, too.
The BJP has deployed its full machinery to challenge the RJD scion, hoping to engineer an upset.
Union minister Nityanand Rai, a local Yadav politician, has been campaigning door to door.
“Nityanand is your real son,” he tells the voters. “Tejashwi is so arrogant that he treats the people of Raghopur as his slaves. That pride must be shattered.”
In the 2020 Assembly elections, Tejashwi’s spirited campaign had brought the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan within striking distance of power.
After falling short by just 12 seats, the alliance had blamed the Congress’s poor strike rate — it won only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. Yet, many in the RJD concede that the party’s inability to expand beyond its MY base had proved equally decisive.
While the RJD emerged as the largest party with 75 seats, it’s strike rate was only a little above 50 per cent considering it contested 144 seats.
Five years on, as Tejashwi attempts to convert that near miss into victory, another variable looms large — Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party.
Once touted as a major disruptor, the “PK factor” is believed to have lost some of its early momentum but continues to intrigue Bihar’s upwardly mobile voters.
Kishor’s candidates are expected to draw votes from both alliances. Who loses more — the NDA or the Mahagathbandhan — could well decide the outcome and, with it, Tejashwi’s immediate political future.