The final phase of polling in Bihar will be held on Tuesday, as voters torn between aspirations of tangible change in their lives and entrenched caste loyalties exercise their franchise in the heartland state.
Votes will be cast in 122 of the state’s 243 constituencies. In the first phase on November 6, polling was held on 121 seats, clocking a record turnout of 65.08 per cent, a figure seen as indicative of the churn and the contest on the ground.
Even after two decades in power, ageing and ailing chief minister Nitish Kumar is leading the ruling NDA and remains the focal point of this election. At the same time, this poll is being viewed as the 74-year-old Nitish’s last flare before he recedes from Bihar’s political horizon.
The prospect of a post-Nitish vacuum has prompted the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duopoly to go all out in the electoral arena, aiming to capture the JDU’s traditional backward caste vote base and consolidate dominance over the Mandal heartland.
Challenger Tejashwi Yadav, the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial face, has also been propelled by this looming vacuum, determined not to let the BJP appropriate the Mandal space in Bihar. He has attempted to portray the Modi-Shah duo as “outsiders” striving to turn Bihar into their colony.
Adding a new twist to the contest is the entry of the Jan Suraaj Party, led by political strategist turned politician Prashant Kishor. Evoking parallels with the Aam Aadmi Party’s rise in Delhi, Jan Suraaj has tapped into the aspirations of Bihar’s youth and upwardly mobile classes. Yet, the extent to which it can disrupt the state’s entrenched caste-driven politics remains uncertain.
The Bihar poll battle is primarily being viewed as a no-holds-barred contest between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, with the Modi-Shah-led BJP eyeing the top spot in the state. With the BJP’s principal strategist, Union home minister Shah, personally overseeing the campaign on the ground, unease appears visible in the Mahagathbandhan camp.
Ahead of the last phase of polling, RJD leader Tejashwi voiced fears of electoral malpractice. Referring to reports that the home minister had met senior Bihar officers during his stay in Patna, Tejashwi on Monday warned “officials of dire consequences if they try to create trouble in collusion with the EC or Union home minister Amit Shah”.
“We will not allow vote theft or dishonesty under any circumstances,” he said, claiming that security personnel from BJP-ruled states had been deployed in Bihar for poll duty. “Why have security personnel been deployed from BJP-ruled states? We are keeping a close watch on them. Around 68 per cent of security personnel and observers are from BJP-ruled states. Why is it so?” he asked.
The final round of voting will also assume significance in the backdrop of Shah’s assertion during the campaign that the next NDA chief minister would be chosen by the newly elected MLAs. This had triggered disquiet within the JDU and many believe it had influenced voting in the first round. Despite later clarification that Nitish would continue as chief minister, the remarks have fuelled speculation about intra-alliance friction.
“There are constituencies where the JDU’s core backward caste vote did not transfer to BJP candidates,” a senior JDU leader said, reflecting simmering tensions within the ruling alliance. In political circles, there is a growing buzz that the JDU could outperform the BJP within the NDA, sparking unease among BJP strategists.
Nitish skipped Prime Minister Modi’s rallies and road shows in the final leg of the campaign — officially described as a strategic move but interpreted by many as a signal of strain within the alliance.
As the countdown to the November 14 counting begins, all eyes are on whether the BJP can surpass the JDU in seat tally and strengthen its claim to the top post — or whether Nitish, once again, proves his enduring hold over Bihar’s complex caste and political landscape.