The outcome of the bypolls to the Kadi and Visavadar Assembly constituencies in Gujarat has spotlighted the Congress’s declining relevance in the state ruled by the BJP for three decades and the AAP’s decisive efforts to fill that void.
On Monday, the AAP’s Gopal Italia won the Visavadar bypoll while the BJP retained the Kadi Assembly seat. Within hours of the announcement of the results, Gujarat Congress president Shaktisinh Gohil resigned owning “moral responsibility”.
In Gujarat, the AAP had first tasted resounding success in early 2021 when it won 27 seats in the 120-member Surat Municipal Corporation. The Congress had failed to win even a single seat.
The Congress’s best performance in recent memory was in the 2017 Assembly elections when it won 77 seats. In 2022, it delivered its worst performance by winning only 17 seats, out of which five MLAs have already joined the BJP. A fledgling AAP had won five seats.
In the 182-member Assembly, the BJP now has 162 MLAs, Congress 12, AAP 5, Samajwadi Party 1 and two Independents.
Even after Narendra Modi shifted to Delhi in 2014 to take charge as Prime Minister, the Congress has struggled to dislodge the BJP in Gujarat.
However, political observers feel that the BJP raking in the votes doesn’t point to voter satisfaction but underscores the lack of an alternative. The AAP is trying its best to become one.
Over the years, the BJP has systematically dented the Congress’s image and projected it as a party for the corrupt. Factionalism in the Congress has compounded its problem. Several party leaders have failed to retain their Assembly and Lok Sabha seats. Geniben Thakor, who secured the Banaskantha Lok Sabha seat in the last general election, had helped the Congress stall the BJP’s hat-trick of winning all 26 seats from Gujarat.
Rahul Gandhi had in April launched the Congress’s Sangathan Sirjan Abhiyan to rebuild the party in the state. The party has since then effected a shuffle, and new district party presidents have been appointed. However, murmurs of discontent over the appointments exist. Party sources told The Telegraph that 40 per cent of the names suggested by the central and Gujarat-level observers were rejected by some local and national leaders.
Rahul has been talking about purging the party of leaders who have been supporting the BJP. However, no significant action has been taken yet. Gohil’s resignation following the bypoll defeat has dealt the latest blow to the party.
Gujarat has seen several third fronts failing. Outfits or parties formed by former chief ministers Shankersinh Vaghela and Keshubhai Patel have eventually merged with the Congress and the BJP, respectively.
“Gujarat does not accept a third party. But, this happens when the Opposition is strong,” the AAP’s Gujarat president, Isudan Ghadvi, told The Telegraph. He is confident of forming the government after the 2027 Assembly elections. “People now know that it is only the AAP that can defeat the BJP. Visavadar was the semi-final,” he said.
In Visavadar, the AAP’s victory came despite the BJP deploying its star campaigners and channelling all its resources.
However, political analyst Hari Desai sounded cautious. “What is the guarantee that Italia will not join the BJP like Hardik Patel?” he said.
Patel, who led the Patidar reservation stir, had joined the Congress in 2020 and switched over to the BJP within two years. Italia was one of the key faces of the agitation along with Patel. Both Patel and Italia have several cases against them.