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The Himalayas, as anyone who paid attention in school geography classes would know, are young mountains. If the scenes of devastation and tragedy unfolding in Uttarakhand’s Uttarkashi district are any indication, we as a country seem to have forgotten that lesson.
The devastating deluge of water, silt and rock that came down the mountain on Tuesday once again highlighted the systemic failures in disaster preparedness, with experts warning that the lack of an integrated early warning system for the region is costing lives.
Lack of Infrastructure
Former secretary of the ministry of earth sciences, Dr M. Rajeevan, said that plans for a comprehensive warning system were discussed during his tenure but never materialised.
“When I was the Secretary, we proposed an integrated early warning system for the entire Himalayan region. It was recorded in a high-level meeting but never implemented,” he was quoted by NDTV as saying.
Rajeevan emphasised the need for high-resolution weather models (1-3 km resolution) and AI-driven nowcasting systems to predict cloudbursts with a 1-3-hour lead time. “Mobile and app-based alerts, along with terrain-specific hazard zoning, are essential,” he said.
Did cloudburst cause the flash flood?
"Data available with us does not reflect the occurrence of a cloudburst," Rohit Thapliyal, a scientist with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told PTI.
He explained that Uttarkashi received only 27 mm of rain on Tuesday, "which is too little for a cloudburst or flash flood of such devastating intensity".
It is not just the amount of rainfall. D.P. Dobhal, a former scientist at the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, also said the possibility of a cloudburst at an altitude like that is too thin.
"The heights from where the sludge came rushing down the slopes fall in the Alpine region where the possibility of a cloudburst is minimal," Dobhal told PTI.
"Most likely it was an ice chunk falling, a rockfall or a huge landslide which mobilised the moraine deposits in the narrow stream, causing the flash flood," the former scientist said.
Unplanned Construction
Scientists have also raised concern over unregulated and unscientific construction in ecologically fragile locations in the Himalayas that leads to such tragedies and deaths.
"In the Himalayan terrain, most of the nullahs or channels along the valley side of slopes, are either developed over the weak zone or the fractured rock or where there are some tectonic alignments,” senior geologist and former director of Uttarakhand Space Application Centre (USAC) MPS Bisht told PTI.
“Therefore, scientifically, it is always advised to be very careful regarding construction of any shelter, hotels, buildings or even makeshift shops like the ones that have been hit by the recent flash floods.
"Rivers have their own natural course. But people construct buildings on its route, intercepting the flow. Cloudburst cannot be predicted. The government should mark hazardous zones," Bisht further added.
Dharali, where the tragedy struck on Tuesday, is the main stopover on the way to Gangotri, and a number of reports have pointed to rampant construction near the river.
Geologists, residents and officials blamed rapid construction in the mountains, which they said had weakened the buildings and the land beneath them.
Himanshu Thakkar of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers & People criticised the absence of effective regulations.
"We have no system to ensure that hotels, homestays and other civil constructions are not encroaching on the path of rivers and streams," he said.
He drew attention to major infrastructure projects, such as hydropower and urban expansion, that dump debris into rivers and constrict floodplains, endangering the landscape further.
To accommodate growing numbers of pilgrims and tourists — more than 56 lakh people visited Char Dham in 2023 alone, according to media reports — hotels, lodges, roads and shops are being built into unstable slopes and flood-prone riverbanks.
Widening of roads under the Char Dham highway project has further destabilised the delicate terrain, leading to frequent landslides along these routes, many experts feel.
Climate Change
Adding to the young growing nature of the Himalayas, rising global temperatures have altered monsoon patterns, making their onset harder to predict.
Researchers have noted warmer temperature anomalies, shifting wind patterns, and low-pressure systems funnelling more moisture into Uttarakhand, amplifying the likelihood and intensity of cloudbursts.
Deforestation and change in land-use patterns have eroded soil stability, reducing the landscape’s natural ability to absorb rainwater, scientists have said.
Not the first time
It’s not as if the Himalayas have just started teaching us that they are a young, growing mountain.
In October 2023, a glacial lake outburst triggered by torrential rain led to devastating floods in Sikkim, leaving at least 179 people dead.
In January 2023, nearly 200 people were evacuated from their homes in the town of Joshimath after hundreds of buildings in the area developed cracks. The unsafe structures were later demolished.
In October 2021, unseasonal heavy rain flooded roads and washed away bridges in Uttarakhand, killing at least 46 people.
In February 2021, more than 200 people were killed as a flash flood in Uttarakhand swept away two hydroelectric projects and sent water, rocks, and debris surging down the Dhauliganga river valley.
In September 2014, Kashmir saw its worst flooding in 50 years as the Jhelum river, which flows from India to Pakistan, surged due to unusually heavy rain. Around 200 Indians and 264 Pakistanis were killed in the incident.
India should take lead in preserving glaciers
Climate activist Sonam Wangchuk wrote an open letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February this year, stating that India should take the lead in addressing climate change.
He warned that the Ganga and the Yamuna would become seasonal rivers if glaciers were not restored. He also appealed for immediate steps to check the migration of people from the Himalayan region because of climate change.
“As we all know the glaciers of the Himalayas are melting very fast and if this and the accompanying deforestation continue at current rates then in a few decades our sacred rivers like Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus might become seasonal rivers," Wangchuk wrote.
He stressed that India should take the lead in mitigating the ill effects of climate change as the Himalayas have the third-largest deposit of ice and snow on Earth after the Arctic and Antarctica.
A 2016 report tabled in Parliament found that Uttarakhand had the highest number of unstable zones among Himalayan states. Tectonic thrusts, fault lines and plate collisions frequently trigger landslides and earthquakes.
According to data from the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro), Uttarakhand recorded 12,319 landslides between 1988 and 2023, but more than 1,100 of those occurred in 2023 alone.
