It was the fervent hope expressed by Pope John XXIII in his 1963 papal letter Pacem in Terris – peace on Earth.
But the world has been anything but peaceful since that appeal, especially over the past three years, with wars raging on two continents and a globe-spanning tariff battle, unleashed by Donald Trump’s “America First” policies, nearly dragging even Arctic penguins into its icy grip.
Now, unexpectedly, there are signs of change. Could we be about to witness Pacem in terris unfold before our eyes? Consider the recent, and rather surprising, developments.
India and Pakistan have stopped fighting, even though there’s no official ceasefire in place.
Despite chest-thumping statements and visible mistrust, the two countries appear to be clinging to a fragile but real calm.
Next, Ukraine, reluctantly, has agreed to sit down for peace talks with Russia. Moscow, stubbornly, refuses to commit to a ceasefire, but the talks alone mark a meaningful shift after years of deadlock.
Elsewhere, the Americans and China could be about to raise the flag of peace in the global trade war that has threatened to wreck economies around the world. This comes despite the Chinese walking out of the talks on the first day. There is, however, a qualification: only a 90-day truce is coming into effect. It’s a cautious détente, and while it may not last, it signals a break in the fevered economic hostilities that have shaken global markets.
And finally, there is also hope of a US deal with Iran; a tenuous ceasefire with the Houthis has already kicked in.
That leaves only Gaza, where the Israelis remain determined to evict the Palestinians and finish the job of reducing the region to rubble. Even here, Donald Trump has unexpectedly signalled disapproval of Netanyahu’s scorched-earth tactics – though that may not last.
Looming over all these developments is the oversized figure of Trump himself. He began by showing profound disinterest in the India-Pakistan conflict: “They’ve been fighting for a thousand years,” he said in a memorable aside to a reporter.
The all-too-clear implication was that he wasn’t going to stop India and its belligerent neighbour from battering each other to pulp.
But something snapped Trump into action and drew his full attention to the missiles and drones flying across the subcontinent’s northwest corner. On the third day, the US panicked because they felt there was high chance of the conflict escalating and the accidental use of nuclear weapons
“We did not hit the Kirana Hills, whatever is stored there,” Air Vice Marshal A. V. Bharti insisted at a press conference. Earlier, India also said Pakistan had fired a “high-speed missile” that was intercepted.
The Americans clearly picked up enough to warrant urgent diplomatic intervention.
Trump has long styled himself on Nixon’s “madman” theory – keeping rivals off-balance by being deliberately unpredictable. But Trump has taken it further, projecting a wild-card persona that seems to spook even seasoned world leaders. Trump is in a league of his own – perhaps getting results simply because other countries are terrified of what unpredictable move he might pull from under his golf cap.
On Monday afternoon, Trump delivered his usual eye-popping claims. He took credit for halting the four-day war: “On Saturday my administration helped to broker a full ceasefire…..They were going at it hot and heavy and it was seemingly not going to stop.”
The president then quickly pivoted to his favourite theme: trade. “We helped also with trade.” He said he told India and Pakistan that, “We are going to do a lot of trade with you guys…. If you stop it we do trade. If you don’t stop it we’re not going to do any trade.”
Then came the classic, familiar self-congratulation: “People have never used trade the way I’ve used it. That I can tell you. And, all of a sudden, they said: ‘We’re going to stop.’ They did it for a lot of reasons but trade is a big one.”
Yet it’s also worth remembering that Trump, for all his bombast, has shown a visceral discomfort with war and American casualties. His aversion to seeing U.S. troops in body bags has repeatedly shaped his foreign policy instincts.
As for Ukraine, Trump had promised to end the war in 24 hours – a claim that proved far removed from reality. Instead, he arm-twisted the Ukrainians into a minerals deal in exchange for arms. Three years since the war’s start and the loss of untold thousands of lives, both sides may finally be inching toward a truce.
That would be a huge relief for Europe, which has watched the war with deep unease. Recall that French armies have twice marched on Moscow, German troops once. The Russian response – controlling Eastern Europe for 45 years – remains a cautionary tale. It’s a continent that regards any military escalation with deep wariness.
As for the global trade war that has roiled the world since Trump entered the Oval Office, there’s now a glimmer of hope.
The US-China summit in Switzerland brought a surprisingly positive outcome. Bloomberg reported: “The dramatic reduction exceeded expectations in China and sent the dollar and stocks soaring.” The elevated 34 per cent ‘reciprocal’ tariff Trump imposed on China has been suspended, at least for now.
These could be tactical lulls and not long-term settlements. The underlying tensions haven’t gone away. But sometimes peace begins with unexpected pauses.
And the speed at which India and Pakistan both accepted the peacemaking efforts suggests that both protagonists were keen to exit from the battlefield impasse since they were both hurt by it. The same could be said about the results of the trade negotiations. Russia and Ukraine have been at war for over three years and both are keen to find an exit.
The truth is if Trump did not exist, both India and Pakistan would have had to invent some sort of peacemaker.
We are now five months into 2025. Let’s hope the second half of the year ushers in a more stable, cooperative world order and proves more peaceful than the turbulent first few months.