A temporary ceasefire, brokered by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, has halted the latest round of border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. But the truce remains fragile, resting on anger, mistrust, and a boundary that neither side fully accepts.
At the heart of the escalating tensions lies the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Formed in 2007 under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP brought together various militant factions operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Its declared aim was to overthrow the Pakistani government and establish an Islamic emirate governed by Sharia law.
Over the years, the group has carried out hundreds of attacks — from suicide bombings and assassinations to assaults on schools, markets, and security installations — leaving thousands of civilians, soldiers, and police officers dead.
After Baitullah Mehsud’s death in a US drone strike in 2009, the group splintered but continued its violent campaign under successive leaders, including Hakimullah Mehsud, Mullah Fazlullah, and now Noor Wali Mehsud.
Despite repeated military operations by Pakistan, including the large-scale offensives Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad, the TTP has survived — regrouping in Afghanistan’s eastern provinces after the Afghan Taliban seized power in 2021.
Pakistan accuses Kabul of providing safe havens to the TTP and allowing its fighters to launch cross-border attacks. Officials in Islamabad say that since the Taliban’s return to power, TTP-linked violence inside Pakistan has surged, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.
According to Pakistani intelligence, TTP fighters, estimated between 3,000 and 5,000, operate from sanctuaries in Afghanistan’s Kunar and Nangarhar provinces, where they train, recruit, and plan operations.
Islamabad insists that it has repeatedly urged Kabul to take action against these militants but has seen no progress. Pakistani military officials claim that airstrikes and drone attacks inside Afghan territory in recent weeks were “necessary defensive measures” to neutralise TTP bases after a string of assaults targeting Pakistani soldiers and Chinese projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
But the Taliban accuse Pakistan of violating Afghan sovereignty and killing civilians under the guise of counterterrorism. Kabul claims that several Pakistani strikes hit civilian areas, including markets and residential zones, rather than militant camps. In retaliation, Afghan border forces launched attacks on Pakistani military posts, claiming to have inflicted “significant losses” — a claim Islamabad denies.
The clash is more than a security dispute. It taps into a historical fault line — the Durand Line, the 2,640-kilometre border drawn in 1893 between British India and Afghanistan.
While Pakistan treats the Durand Line as a recognised boundary, Afghanistan has never accepted it. Successive Afghan governments, including the Taliban, have called it an artificial division that splits Pashtun tribal lands and undermines Afghan sovereignty.
Border fencing by Pakistan in recent years has deepened tensions. Afghan guards have frequently torn down sections of the fence, accusing Islamabad of encroachment. For many Afghans, the line is a colonial relic; for Pakistan, rejecting it amounts to questioning its territorial integrity.
Against this backdrop, the TTP’s presence has become an even more explosive issue — both a symptom and a trigger of the mistrust between the two neighbours.
Analysts say that while the Taliban and TTP share ideological and tribal links, their interests diverge. The Afghan Taliban, now focused on governing a war-torn nation, is reluctant to confront the TTP directly, fearing internal dissent and backlash among its own ranks.
For Pakistan the group represents an existential threat. The TTP’s attacks have not only destabilised regions along the frontier but also undermined economic recovery and foreign investment.
The group’s hostility toward China-backed projects, in particular, has raised alarm in Islamabad, which sees CPEC as a lifeline for its struggling economy.
The recent ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan offers only a brief pause in what has become a recurring cycle of accusations, retaliation, and uneasy truces. The TTP remains the centerpiece of this deadly rivalry — a group that neither country fully controls but both blame for their mutual insecurity.