India’s formidable home record faces a stern test when they meet a confident New Zealand in the decisive third ODI at the high-scoring Holkar Stadium in Indore on Sunday, with the three-match series locked at 1-1.
India have not lost a bilateral ODI series at home since March 2019, when Australia overturned a 0-2 deficit to win 3–2, including the decider in Delhi.
That long-standing dominance is now under scrutiny against a New Zealand side sensing a rare opening.
For the Black Caps, the stakes are equally significant. They have toured India for bilateral ODIs since 1989 but have never won a series here, and this contest shapes up as one of their best opportunities to end that barren run.
The match also carries weight for India head coach Gautam Gambhir, who would not welcome another setback at home under his tenure.
India have already endured several unwanted firsts during this period, including the loss of five Tests at home and an ODI series defeat in Sri Lanka for the first time.
India’s defeat in the second ODI at Rajkot was defined less by a single extraordinary innings and more by how New Zealand asserted control during the middle overs.
Daryl Mitchell’s unbeaten century was built on calculated aggression, particularly against spin, an area where India have shown vulnerability in recent times.
Indore offers even less margin for error. With short boundaries and little assistance for bowlers, the Holkar Stadium is a venue where totals can quickly surge beyond 350.
India’s struggles against spin in the middle overs have raised concerns, as strike rotation has stalled at crucial phases, forcing batters into high-risk options instead of controlled accumulation.
On such a ground, those quiet overs can decisively shift momentum.
Will there be a RoKo show
Much of the spotlight will be on Rohit Sharma, who is enduring a lean run in the series. His ultra-aggressive approach at the top has been central to India’s recent ODI philosophy, but repeated early dismissals have added pressure.
Virat Kohli, meanwhile, remains the fulcrum of India’s ODI batting. With India’s next 50-over assignment for senior players likely to come in July on the tour of England, fans will hope for another RoKo show.
Selection balance
The choice between Nitish Kumar Reddy and Ayush Badoni represents a trade-off between depth and control.
Reddy provides seam-bowling insurance, though used sparingly, along with late-innings power, while Badoni brings a tighter technique against spin and composure through the middle overs.
The case for including left-arm pacer Arshdeep Singh also gains traction in Indore, where variations rather than raw pace often determine success.
His ability to swing the new ball, attack the stumps and execute yorkers at the death gives India a different tactical option, particularly against New Zealand’s largely right-handed top and middle order.
His presence could also ease the load on the spinners in the middle and late phases, allowing India to lean more on pace-off deliveries, wide yorkers and hard lengths, methods better suited to the Holkar surface than sustained spin.
The challenge lies in deciding whom he replaces. Mohammed Siraj’s role with the new ball makes him difficult to omit, leaving a spinner or a seam-bowling all-rounder as the most likely trade-off depending on conditions and batting depth.
KL Rahul’s role appears settled. His returns at number five underline the value of keeping him there rather than pushing him down to six, where his ability to manage tempo and rebuild under pressure is diminished.
New Zealand arrive with clarity and confidence. Mitchell’s dominance, supported by Devon Conway, has reflected the Black Caps’ ability to identify match-ups and execute plans without overreach.
Their bowlers, despite lacking headline names, have relied on variations and hard lengths to good effect in conditions offering little natural assistance.
Mitchell offered insight into that preparation after the second ODI. “There's been plenty, plenty mornings in the marquee down in the South Island in Lincoln on some prepared dusty wickets to try and find ways to come up with game plans in this part of the world,” he said.
At a venue where bowlers are often forced into damage control, the contest is likely to hinge as much on decision-making as on skill.
For Shubman Gill and his side, the task is not only to secure a series win but also to show tactical flexibility and situational awareness, qualities that define successful teams when margins are thin and pressure is real.
Teams (from):
India: Shubman Gill (c), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul (wk), Dhruv Jurel (wk), Ravindra Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Ayush Badoni, Kuldeep Yadav, Arshdeep Singh, Prasidh Krishna, Mohammed Siraj, Harshit Rana.
New Zealand: Michael Bracewell (c), Devon Conway (wk), Mitchell Hay (wk), Nick Kelly, Henry Nicholls, Will Young, Josh Clarkson, Zak Foulkes, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Adithya Ashok, Kristian Clarke, Kyle Jamieson, Jayden Lennox, Michael Rae.
The match starts at 1:30 pm IST.