More than USD 100 million has been traded on predictions linked to this year’s Academy Awards across prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, as per US media reports.
Trading in Oscar-related predictions has surged in the run-up to the ceremony, with Kalshi alone recording USD 48.4 million in trades by March 10, far exceeding the USD 29.6 million recorded during the entire 2025 awards cycle.
“It’s definitely one of our faster growing verticals,” Kalshi spokesperson Jack Such told Variety. “It’s one of the tentpole individual events. It’ll do tons of volume.”
The best actor category is one of the most intense races. Timothée Chalamet had been the overwhelming favourite to win the Oscar until about two weeks ago, when Michael B. Jordan won the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Award for best actor.
Following the SAG win, the price of a Chalamet contract on Kalshi dropped from 68 cents to 51 cents.
Chalamet remained a narrow favourite for a brief period. However, his remarks dismissing ballet and opera drew backlash on March 6, triggering another shift in the market.
Since March 7, Jordan has emerged as the frontrunner on the platform.
Rival platform Polymarket has also seen heavy trading. About USD 30 million had been traded on the best picture market alone as of Thursday, compared with USD 5.3 million for the same category during the 2025 awards season.
The film One Battle After Another is currently the clear favourite for best picture on both platforms, trading at around 75 cents.
Prediction markets, where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, have existed for several years but gained momentum in October 2024 after a US federal appeals court allowed Kalshi to offer bids tied to the presidential election.
Since then, interest in such markets has surged. Major sports betting operators including DraftKings and FanDuel have also launched prediction market products.
DraftKings has offered Oscar-related wagering since 2019, when it was allowed only in New Jersey. Since then, several jurisdictions including Michigan, Indiana, Arizona, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Kansas, Missouri and Puerto Rico have permitted such activity.
Prediction markets, however, are regulated differently from traditional gambling platforms. They are treated as futures contracts and overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).