Two years ago, during the campaign for the Lok Sabha elections in Darjeeling and Malda, Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee had lamented the Trinamool’s lack of electoral success in the northern part of the state.
In the run-up to the 2026 Assembly polls, the ruling Trinamool is banking on the resentment among a section of the electors after the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls to turn the tide.
During her campaign in north Bengal’s Alipurduar last month, Mamata spoke about the queues that followed demonetisation and the SIR process.
The north Bengal district of Malda has seen the highest deletion of voters in the region via the SIR, 4.59 lakh, followed by North Dinajpur (3.63 lakh).
In the other north Bengal districts, names of 2.42 lakh voters in Cooch Behar, 2.01 lakh voters in Jalpaiguri, 1.9 lakh voters in Darjeeling and 1.95 lakh in South Dinajpur have been deleted from the electoral rolls.
The BJP believes the deletions may help it by reducing what it calls inflated rolls in minority-dominated Malda and North Dinajpur. The Trinamool and Congress, however, allege that genuine voters, especially minorities and migrant workers, have been struck off.
"The BJP is trying to win north Bengal through the backdoor after failing to fulfil its promises on the CAA [Citizenship Amendment Act], tea wages and Gorkhaland," Trinamool leader and Siliguri mayor Gautam Deb told PTI.
North Bengal took a turn towards the BJP from the 2019 Lok Sabha election and has stayed largely with the saffron party in both the 2021 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
In 2019, the BJP had swept north Bengal in the Lok Sabha election, winning seven of the eight parliamentary seats, and consolidated that rise in 2021 by bagging 30 of the 54 Assembly seats against the Trinamool's 24.
The saffron camp retained an edge in 2024, though it slipped from its 2019 peak, winning six of the eight Lok Sabha seats and leading in 31 Assembly segments.
"North Bengal is no longer a one-wave region. The BJP still has a structural advantage, but the contest is much closer than it was in 2021," political analyst Subhomoy Maitra told PTI.
The BJP knows that to form the next government in Bengal it is important for the party to consolidate its position in the hills, the tea gardens spread over Dooars and Terai, and the Rajbonshi population.
The Kamtapur State Demand Council, which has renewed its demand for a separate Kamtapur state, is backing the BJP, while in the hills the party is relying on the Bimal Gurung-led GJM.
Though the saffron party has set an ambitious target of 48 out of the 54 seats in the region, the sailing is not smooth.
Large numbers of voters in the hills are unhappy with the BJP for not resolving the Gorkhaland issue, despite Darjeeling remaining a confirmed seat for any BJP nominee for the Lok Sabha since 2009.
Add to this mix the Kamtapur and Greater Cooch Behar issues, all based around identity politics.
Ergo, the Trinamool is feeling upbeat about a change in the mood banking on the government’s welfare policies aimed at women and youth and welfare boards that the government has either formed or promised for the diverse people residing in the region.
In the hills, it is hopeful that the tie-up with Anit Thapa’s BGPM could offset the BJP-GJM alliance. The Trinamool has not fielded any candidate in the three hill seats of Darjeeling, Kurseong and Kalimpong.
The BJP has also faced heat over the selection of candidates.
Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty told PTI the election in north Bengal was no longer being driven by a single issue.
"Identity, welfare and regional neglect are intersecting in a very complex way. The BJP still has an advantage, but the Trinamool has narrowed the gap. Much will depend on turnout, the impact of SIR and whether local grievances override broader narratives," he said.
Union minister and Balurghat MP Sukanta Majumdar rejected the possibility of BJP losing ground in the region.
"North Bengal has suffered neglect for decades. People want development and dignity. The mood here is in favour of change," he said.
Seven years ago, the BJP’s upward trajectory started from north Bengal. On May 4 we will know whether the region has completely embraced saffron.
North Bengal votes on April 23 in the first phase of the Bengal Assembly election 2026
Complete coverage – Poll drums: Bengal Assembly elections 2026