The number of post-SIR adjudication deletions in many Assembly segments of Calcutta and three neighbouring districts has outstripped the lead margins of the Trinamool Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The numbers suggest how the large-scale SIR culling is threatening to upset political equations, with Trinamool appearing to face a tougher contest in seats it had comfortably and consistently won.
Along with the Left and the Congress, the Bengal ruling party has turned up the heat on the Election Commission for chopping 90.83 lakh names from the state’s poll rolls, accusing the EC of acting at the behest of the BJP.
However, the numbers mentioned in this article could change as the Supreme Court on Thursday said those deleted individuals cleared by the tribunals by April 21 for the first phase and April 27 for the second phase would be allowed to vote.
Trinamool has shaped its campaign agenda around the harassment of common people — over 1.51 crore had to stand in serpentine queues to submit documents and face hearings to prove their eligibility as voters.
The BJP, on the other hand, is peddling the SIR as necessary to weed out ineligible voters and Bangladeshi “infiltrators and Rohingyas”. The party expects the “sanitisation exercise” to help consolidate Hindu voters in its favour and significantly dent Trinamool’s Muslim vote bank.
An analysis of the results of the past few elections in Bengal and the likely impact that the deletions would have in several seats appears to have spread concern within Trinamool. According to political observers, the deletions have turned many seats into close contests for the party.
The Telegraph takes a look at how the purge could affect the poll outcome in several constituencies:
Calcutta, surroundings
Calcutta, North 24-Parganas, South 24-Parganas and Howrah, accounting for 91 Assembly seats, are considered Trinamool strongholds. Trinamool was ahead in 81 of these Assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the BJP in 10.
However, the situation could change dramatically as 36.44 lakh names, or 15.5 per cent of the 2.34-crore voters in these four districts who were on the pre-SIR rolls, have now been removed.
The deletions range from 35,000 to 40,000 in each of these 91 seats. Trinamool is likely to encounter a tough challenge in at least 25 of these seats, where the party was ahead by a margin of less than 15,000 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
“If Trinamool loses a significant number of seats in its strongest bastion, the battle for the Assembly could become a close one,” said a political analyst.
Minority belts
Trinamool also holds sway over 74 seats across the state where the minority population is over 40 per cent. The deletion numbers in 39 of these seats are more than the party’s lead in these Assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
In these 39 seats, Trinamool was ahead in 27, the BJP in 6, and the Left-Congress combine in 6.
“As most of the voters deleted after adjudication are Muslims, Trinamool definitely has reason to be worried,” said an observer. He said the ruling party had won 72 of these 74 seats in 2021, but the situation changed in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when the party was ahead in 54 of the 74 Assembly segments. The BJP led in 8 seats, and the Congress-Left alliance in 12 (Congress 11 and Left 1).
“The situation has become more complicated for Trinamool after the SIR. The results of many of these segments could change drastically as the Congress and the CPM are expected to get some Muslim votes in districts like North and South Dinajpur, Malda and Murshidabad,” the observer added.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls are an indicator of how Trinamool can face difficulties when the Congress and the Left Front get a significant number of Muslim votes.
For instance, the Raghunathganj Assembly segment in Murshidabad had 78 per cent
Muslim population before the SIR, but Trinamool had taken a slender lead of 3,757 votes from here as the Congress-Left combine had secured a robust number of minority votes.
Similarly, Jalangi in Murshidabad had a minority population of 71 per cent, but Trinamool secured a lead of only 5,758 votes in this Assembly segment as the Left-Congress managed to pull a sizable section of votes.
On the other hand, the BJP had taken a lead of 3,266 votes in the Jangipur Assembly segment, which had 53 per cent Muslim voters, as the Congress-Left Front secured a sizable number of votes. In the Murshidabad Assembly segment, the BJP was ahead by 7,851 votes despite a 53 per cent Muslim population.
Overall deletions
The situation looks grimmer for Trinamool if the total deletion of voters across the state is taken into account. In 190 of Bengal’s 294 Assembly seats, the number of deletions is more than the party’s lead margin in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Of these 190 segments, Trinamool was ahead in 111, the BJP in 68, and the Congress-Left Front in 11.
The battle looks more intense if the 27 lakh voters deleted after adjudication are taken out of the equation.
Poll maths and voter psychology do not always align, but Trinamool stands to lose the most in case of a swing in these seats.