If the first phase of the Assembly polls was about the impact of SIR deletions on the Muslim-majority pockets, the second phase will reveal how Hindus, especially members of the Matua community, react to deletions and whether it could whip up a backlash against the BJP in the Hindu refugee-majority hubs.
A study on SIR-adjudication deletions in four Matua-dominated constituencies, conducted by the Sabar Institute, a Calcutta-based public policy research institute focusing on inclusivity of disadvantaged groups, revealed that among the deleted voters, over 80-90 per cent are Hindus, especially from the Matua community.
The four seats — Bangaon Uttar, Bangaon Dakshin, Gaighata and Habra — all fall under North 24-Parganas.
“Our study revealed that the majority of deleted voters in those four constituencies are non-Muslims, mainly Hindu Matuas. So, in this phase, we have to observe how the voters of that region react to the SIR deletion,” said Sabir Ahamed, a researcher associated with the Sabar Institute.
According to the study, the total number of deleted voters in Bangaon Uttar Assembly constituency is 8,280. Among them, only 1,351 are Muslims, and 6,929 are non-Muslims. Thus, among the deleted voters, 16.3 per cent are Muslims and 83.7 per cent are non-Muslims.
Similarly, in Bangaon Dakshin, Gaighata, and Habra, Muslim voters constitute 9.8 per cent, 3.1 per cent, and 3.2 per cent, respectively, of the total deleted voters during the adjudication process. In these three constituencies, the percentage of non-Muslim deleted voters stands at 90.4 per cent, 96.9 per cent and 96.8 per cent, respectively.
The Matuas are known to swing the poll outcome in 21 Assembly segments across Nadia, North 24-Parganas and South 24-Parganas.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, Trinamool had won 12 of these 21 seats and the BJP bagged nine. This equation did not change in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls when the BJP and the Trinamool led in a similar number of Assembly segments.
TMC, BJP 'confident'
Trinamool leaders believe that as the Matuas bore the brunt of the SIR deletions, they would vote for Mamata rather than the BJP.
“A large number of Matuas had favoured the BJP since 2019. Now, during the SIR, thousands of their names were deleted during the adjudication process. We have reports that even a few who got citizenship certificates failed to secure their names in the electoral roll. So, Matuas will not vote for the BJP this time,” said Mamatabala Thakur, a Trinamool Rajya Sabha member and head of the pro-Trinamool faction of the All India Matua Mahasangha.
“People of the Matua community know how Mamata Banerjee fought against this very SIR that caused such huge harassment for them. The family members of the deleted voters will also shun the BJP. We will get more seats in our area this time,” she added.
However, BJP leaders rubbished her claims, arguing that the SIR was not a factor as the Matuas understood that the BJP would provide them citizenship once the election was over.
A source in the BJP admitted some discontent among a section of the Matua people over the deletions, but “it has been addressed in different ways”.
“Local BJP leaders reached out to each of those deleted voters and their family members. Saffron outfits such as the RSS worked on the ground and convinced the Matua people that the Centre alone can ensure their citizenship after the election,”he said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday asserted that giving citizenship to Matuas and Hindu refugees was the party’s “historical
responsibility”.
“People of the Matua community know clearly that the BJP is with them and they will get citizenship rights. Their names will feature in the electoral roll next time. They are with us as they trust the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has said that every Matua will get Indian citizenship,” said Shantanu Thakur, Union minister of state and head of the pro-BJP faction of the All India Matua Mahasangha.
Political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty said he was inclined to believe that SIR deletions would not impact the Matua belt much.
“A larger section of Matuas are with the BJP. They have understood that they have no option other than going with the BJP. So, the chances of the community’s backlash against the BJP are minimal. Most importantly, the groundwork of the RSS has repaired the damage on the ground effectively,” said Chakraborty.