The first phase of the Bengal Assembly polls has emerged as a challenge for the Election Commission and political parties alike, as the arithmetic of the 152 seats where voting will be held on Thursday has changed completely in the post-SIR period.
The Telegraph takes a closer look at the challenges the EC and the political parties, mainly the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, are set to face in the first phase.
Trinamool levelled several allegations against the EC over the deletion of genuine voters' names, the imposition of several restrictions, and the transfer of state government officers, including the chief secretary, home secretary, and the DGP, soon after the elections were announced.
“The EC has countered the allegations every time, saying the steps were initiated to hold free and fair polls. Now, if violence is reported or allegations come up regarding electoral malpractices, including booth capturing or proxy voting, the EC would certainly face questions. This is why the EC would be facing a challenge to hold free and fair polls peacefully,” said a retired bureaucrat who worked with the EC a few years ago.
Poll panel
The first challenge for the EC is to ensure that no violence is reported during the first phase of polls in 16 districts, which include Murshidabad, Birbhum, West Burdwan and East Midnapore. The EC is extra-cautious as these districts are prone to violence on the polling day.
The EC has already changed several DMs, SPs, BDOs and ICs/OCs in these districts, alleging they are not playing a neutral role. Trinamool alleged that the changes done without consulting the state government could lead to severe law-and-order issues. Moreover, nearly 200 troublemakers in these districts were arrested to avert violent incidents on the polling day. Also, the EC has deployed an unprecedented number of central forces — a total of 2,407 companies — for the first phase.
According to the plan, half a section of the central forces (four jawans) would be deployed in a booth. In case of sensitive booths, the figure could reach up to two sections (16 jawans). The state police would not be allowed within a 100m radius of the booths. Even before the elections were declared, 480 companies had been deployed in the state since March 1.
Now, despite all these arrangements, if violence cannot be stopped, the EC is bound to face questions.
A senior EC official said the measures had already produced results in the run-up to the polls.
“In 2021, 20 people were killed, and nearly 6,000 people were injured in the pre-poll violence. This year, till Monday, no deaths had been reported, and the number of injured persons came down by 75 per cent. So, the measures have produced results, but it remains to be seen how the situation unfolds on the polling day,” said the official.
The EC would also face a challenge in stopping electoral malpractices in the first phase, as complaints of booth capturing, proxy voting and intimidation of voters were common features in the districts which will go to the polls on Thursday.
“The cadres of political parties, mainly Trinamool, used to flex muscles in several areas, and voters were intimidated on the polling day. The EC has initiated several measures, including webcasting from all booths, and deployed a huge number of central forces to ensure fear-free polling. But still, it remains a challenge for the poll panel to get the plans implemented on the ground,” said a source.
The third challenge for the EC is to make arrangements for voters who were cleared for enrolment by the appellate tribunals at the last minute.
“These names would have to be included in the marked copy of the electoral rolls, based on which the presiding officers would hold polls at the booths. It is also a challenge to inform the voters who would be allowed to cast their votes at the last minute,” said an official.
Political parties
Trinamool, the BJP, the Left Front and the Congress would face a severe challenge in the first phase of polls as 40.46 lakh voters' names were struck off the electoral rolls in the districts which would go to the polls on Thursday.
This is the area from where the BJP has to bag the maximum number of seats if it wants to defeat Trinamool, as the saffron party has a strong support base compared to the districts that would go to the polls in the second phase on April 29.
Similarly, Trinamool faces a challenge to retain the seats it had won or was ahead in the 2021 Assembly and 2024 Lok Sabha polls, respectively, to keep the BJP at bay. Similarly, the Left Front and the Congress need to retain the seats they were ahead in the 2024 polls. In 2024, the Left Front-Congress alliance was ahead in 12 of the 152 seats. The alliance had not won a single seat in 2021. This time, the LF and the Congress are fighting separately.
The post-SIR scenario could influence the results in the 152 seats of the first phase. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls (the closest elections held ahead of the SIR), 3.15 crore of 3.93 crore people had come out to vote in the districts going to the polls in the first phase. The turnout was 80.06 per cent. Of the 3.15 crore votes, Trinamool had secured 1.35 crore and the BJP 1.27 crore. There was a difference of 8.27 lakh votes.
Trinamool was ahead in 77 seats and the BJP in 63 Assembly segments in 2024. The BJP was ahead in 90 Assembly seats in 2024 across the state, and 63 of them were from the districts which will vote on Thursday.
Now, the scenario can change rapidly as 40.46 lakh names were deleted from the rolls in the SIR, bringing down the total number of voters to 3.60 crore. As there was a difference of only 8.26 lakh votes in 2024 and a total of 14.28 lakh names were deleted only after the adjudication, the battle looks close and it can change the picture of the entire state.